根据博彩平台Polymarket和Kalshi的交易数据显示，押注者认为凯文·沃什在5月15日杰罗姆·鲍威尔任期届满前获得美联储主席提名的概率仅为31%。
沃什的提名听证会将于今日晚些时候启动，但北卡罗来纳州共和党参议员汤姆·蒂利斯已成为快速提名的障碍。这位计划于明年1月任期结束后退休的议员宣称，除非司法部终止对鲍威尔的刑事调查，否则将阻挠任何美联储候选人提名。蒂利斯指责该调查是出于政治动机，旨在破坏央行的独立性。
不过预测市场的交易者认为这场僵局终将化解。Kalshi平台数据显示，押注者预测沃什在6月30日前获得任命的概率升至65%，而到7月1日时概率将进一步攀升至87%。
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