The global manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) reached 51% in January, an increase of 1.5 percentage points from the previous month, according to a recent release. This concludes a ten-month streak of readings below the 50% threshold, which separates expansion from contraction.

Regionally, the manufacturing PMI for Africa declined from the previous month, falling below 50%. In contrast, the European manufacturing PMI rose to the 50% mark. The Asian manufacturing PMI showed little fluctuation, maintaining stability around 51% for the second consecutive month. The Americas saw their manufacturing PMI climb above 51%.

The overall index movement indicates that the global manufacturing sector's health improved significantly in January compared to December. Across regions, Asian manufacturing maintained a steady expansion. Both European and American manufacturing activity showed varying degrees of improvement from the previous month, while African manufacturing conditions worsened, moving into contraction territory.

The recovery in European and American manufacturing was partly influenced by seasonal factors. January typically sees concentrated inventory replenishment in major Western nations following the Christmas and New Year holidays. Additionally, manufacturers in these regions advanced purchases to hedge against potential price increases resulting from ongoing tariff disputes, further boosting activity.

Despite this uptick, the probability of a rapid global economic rebound remains low against a backdrop of persistently insufficient effective demand worldwide. The pace of recovery is expected to stay gradual. The sustainability of this improving trend in global manufacturing is yet to be confirmed. As 2026 begins, major international institutions have not significantly revised their global growth forecasts upward, generally anticipating economic growth rates to remain similar to those of 2025. Persistent global trade tensions and unresolved geopolitical risks continue to impact trade flows, market confidence, and supply chain stability. Advancing global multilateral trade cooperation remains crucial for mitigating negative effects and stabilizing worldwide economic growth.

**African Manufacturing Contracts as PMI Falls Below 50%** In January, the African manufacturing PMI registered 49.6%, a decrease of 1.1 percentage points from December. Among major economies, Egypt and Nigeria saw their PMI readings fall below 50%, while South Africa's PMI, though improved, remained in contraction territory. This data indicates a decline in African manufacturing activity, with the sector returning to contraction and highlighting ongoing instability in its recovery. Challenges such as trade friction, geopolitical conflicts, and high sovereign debt levels continue to constrain the region's economic resilience. However, Africa's economic potential remains significant, driven by regional trade integration, economic restructuring, and industrial upgrading. Institutions including the African Development Bank and the International Monetary Fund project the continent's economic growth to exceed 4% in 2026. African nations are also working to stimulate economic vitality through infrastructure development, reforms in energy and digital sectors, and multi-faceted coordinated development.

**European Manufacturing Rebounds to Expansion Threshold** The European manufacturing PMI reached 50% in January, up 0.7 percentage points from the previous month. This ends a trend of sub-50% readings dating back to August 2022. In major countries, the UK, France, and Greece reported PMI readings above 50%, indicating expansion. Germany's manufacturing PMI saw a notable increase, though it remained slightly below 49% at just over that mark. The overall index suggests improved conditions in European manufacturing. The January rebound included seasonal influences, with post-holiday inventory restocking playing a role. The PMI has stabilized above 49% since July of the previous year, pointing to a relatively steady, albeit slow, recovery. Market expectations generally hold that the European economy retains resilience, albeit with low growth projected between 1% and 2%. Easing inflationary pressures provide a favorable environment for continued recovery; the Eurozone CPI is already below the 2% target, and the European Central Bank forecasts inflation could drop to 1.9% in 2026. Nevertheless, persistent trade disputes and geopolitical conflicts continue to significantly dampen the recovery, indicating that economic resilience still requires strengthening.

**Asian Manufacturing Maintains Moderate Expansion** The Asian manufacturing PMI was 51% in January, edging down just 0.1 percentage points from December. This marks the ninth consecutive month the index has remained above 50%. Among key economies, China's manufacturing PMI fell below 50%, while India's PMI stayed robust above 55%. Within ASEAN nations, Thailand, Indonesia, Vietnam, and the Philippines reported PMIs above 52%. Malaysia, Singapore, and Myanmar also had readings above 50%. Japan and South Korea registered PMIs above 51%. Collectively, the data shows Asian manufacturing sustaining expansion with relative stability, positioning the region to continue playing a vital role in stabilizing global economic growth in 2026. The driving forces of China, India, and ASEAN in the regional recovery remain evident. An IMF report forecasts that emerging and developing economies will continue to be the primary engine of global growth, with projected growth rates staying above 4.0% for 2026-2027. The Asian Development Bank predicts a 4.6% growth rate for developing Asia-Pacific economies in 2026. By strengthening internal growth drivers, deepening regional cooperation, and enhancing supply chain resilience, Asian economies are fueling a sustained recovery, providing ongoing momentum for global economic stability.

**Americas Manufacturing Activity Shows Significant Improvement** The manufacturing PMI for the Americas rose to 51.8% in January, a substantial increase of 3.9 percentage points from the previous month. This ended a ten-month period of contraction below 50%, signaling a clear acceleration in the region's manufacturing growth. Data from major countries showed the US and Canada with significant PMI increases pushing them above 50%, while Colombia's PMI fell to the 50% threshold. Brazil and Mexico remained in contraction territory. The recoveries in the US and Canada were the primary drivers of the regional upturn. According to the Institute for Supply Management report, the US manufacturing PMI jumped to 52.6% in January, up 4.7 percentage points, breaking a ten-month sub-50% trend. Sub-indexes revealed that new orders and production increased markedly, surpassing 55%. However, inventories of raw materials and employment indices stayed below 50%, with customer inventories particularly low, below 40%. This suggests that post-holiday inventory replenishment needs contributed to the improvement in supply and demand. Furthermore, companies advanced purchases to counter potential tariff-induced price hikes. The sustainability of the US manufacturing recovery is uncertain. Key factors to watch include whether end-demand can persist after restocking cycles end and whether the impacts of tariff policies on manufacturing will ease. Business surveys indicate that many firms continue to report ongoing effects from tariffs. Currently, US consumer confidence has not fully recovered; the Conference Board's latest data shows a sharp drop in the Consumer Confidence Index to 84.5 in January, down from 94.2 in December, reaching its lowest level since May 2014. This decline in confidence suggests underlying weakness in consumer spending recovery, which may limit its ability to drive manufacturing growth.