股市投资者最喜欢看到的是公司展现出持续的“超预期并上调指引”模式。也就是说,公司每季度的财报都优于分析师预期,接着分析师调高未来几个季度的营收与利润预估,在这种正向循环推动下,股价也会水涨船高。
但到目前为止,今年大多数标准普尔500指数(S&P 500,代码SPX)成分股公司的分析师一致营收预期已被下调,而利润预期的下调幅度更甚。
这些是针对2025年自然年度的预测,FactSet已调整包含那些财年与自然年不一致的公司。预估数据依据多种因素,包括公司的营收、利润和利润率指引,以及行业、经济和贸易政策的发展。
由于原材料成本上升(部分源于特朗普对进口商品加征的新关税),利润率收窄可能会在第二季度财报季成为焦点。
以下是一些近期下调营收和/或利润预期的公司例子:
梅西百货 (Macy’s Inc., 代码M)于5月28日公布2025财年第一季度业绩。该零售商维持全年营收预期不变,但下调了利润预期,理由是关税上涨及公司选择承担部分新增成本。
宝洁 (Procter & Gamble Co., 代码PG)于4月底发布了2025财年第三季度财报,并因消费支出下滑及预期的关税成本上涨,下调了全年营收与利润预期。宝洁首席财务官Andre Schulten在一场会议上表示,公司预计将裁员约7000人。
为了获得一套能统一反映公司指引与其他市场变化的数据,我们对S&P 500指数成分股的息税前利润(EBIT)与营收的共识预估进行了分析,并对比了截至12月31日的预估数据与当前数据。一个公司预计的营业利润率可以通过EBIT除以营收估算得出。
在标普500中,有496家公司拥有完整的当前与去年底的估值数据。汇总如下:
59%的公司营收预估下调;
66%的公司EBIT预估下调;
48%的公司营收与EBIT预估同时下调;
65%的公司预计营业利润率收窄。
然而,有87家公司逆势而行,其2025年的销售与EBIT共识预估均上调,且营业利润率预计扩大。
在这87家公司中,有20家公司被FactSet调查的分析师中至少75%给予“买入”或同等评级。以下是这20家公司,按其2025年营收预估年内升幅排序,并显示营业利润率变化:
公司名称 | 股票代码 | 2025营收预估变化 | 2025 EBIT预估变化 | 预计2025营业利润率 | 2024年末利润率 |
EXE | -2.06% | +20.48% | 23.52% | 12.84% | |
SCHW | +0.07% | +4.14% | 46.06% | 44.88% | |
PODD | -2.27% | +4.10% | 16.58% | 15.60% | |
BSX | -0.70% | +3.99% | 27.68% | 27.52% | |
AVGO | +0.14% | +3.11% | 65.28% | 64.13% | |
INTU | -0.30% | +2.65% | 40.59% | 40.16% | |
HBAN | +0.49% | +2.63% | 39.81% | 38.77% | |
GE | -3.74% | +1.73% | 20.83% | 20.49% | |
ICE | -0.25% | +1.08% | 60.23% | 59.87% | |
Arista Networks Inc. | ANET | -3.20% | +0.94% | 45.20% | 44.17% |
LRCX | +3.06% | +0.79% | 31.59% | 30.65% | |
C | -0.18% | +0.67% | 36.45% | 35.63% | |
KO | +0.81% | +0.65% | 30.98% | 30.74% | |
BAC | +0.49% | +0.65% | 36.52% | 36.42% | |
RCL | -1.57% | +0.21% | 27.75% | 26.59% | |
IRM | -0.16% | +0.20% | 21.26% | 20.39% | |
CCL | +1.24% | +0.08% | 15.38% | 15.25% | |
DIS | +2.65% | +0.01% | 18.53% | 17.80% | |
TRMB | +0.61% | +0.01% | 26.69% | 26.21% | |
AMT | +0.84% | +0.01% | 46.87% | 46.41% |
资料来源:FactSet
以下是上述20只股票,按分析师一致目标价所隐含的12个月涨幅排序:
公司名称 | 股票代码 | 6月9日收盘价 | 一致目标价 | 隐含12个月上涨空间 |
BSX | $100.04 | $120.68 | 21% | |
AMT | $212.83 | $246.20 | 16% | |
TRMB | $72.36 | $83.51 | 15% | |
AVGO | $244.28 | $280.83 | 15% | |
ANET | $96.80 | $109.15 | 13% | |
EXE | $114.94 | $128.79 | 12% | |
CCL | $24.21 | $27.08 | 12% | |
PODD | $305.66 | $341.27 | 12% | |
IRM | $101.22 | $112.67 | 11% | |
KO | $71.77 | $79.55 | 11% | |
ICE | $175.97 | $194.38 | 10% | |
BAC | $44.87 | $49.54 | 10% | |
DIS | $115.66 | $126.84 | 10% | |
HBAN | $16.23 | $17.70 | 9% | |
C | $78.17 | $84.95 | 9% | |
INTU | $764.38 | $806.04 | 5% | |
LRCX | $88.30 | $91.04 | 3% | |
SCHW | $88.21 | $90.68 | 3% | |
RCL | $273.99 | $272.59 | -1% | |
GE | $251.41 | $246.63 | -2% |
资料来源:FactSet
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