Abstract

Fair Isaac will report fiscal Q1 results on January 28, 2026 Post Market; this preview consolidates last quarter’s actuals, current-quarter forecasts on revenue, margins, net income, and adjusted EPS, along with consensus themes and institutional views from January 01, 2026 to January 21, 2026.

Market Forecast

Consensus for the current fiscal quarter points to revenue of $0.50 billion, EBIT of $0.26 billion, and adjusted EPS of $7.06, implying year-over-year growth of 10.80%, 11.52%, and 16.30%, respectively; the model mix indicates stable-to-expanding gross margin and resilient net profitability. Management’s framework and market tracking suggest the core Scores engine and software mix should keep gross profit margin in the low-80.00% area, while net margin trends remain broadly healthy alongside mid-teens EPS growth. The main business highlights continue to center on the Scores franchise and expanding software monetization, with durable pricing and contract renewals supporting outlook and cash conversion. The most promising segment is the Scores Solutions line, estimated at $0.31 billion last quarter, with ongoing double-digit revenue momentum on expanding use-cases and pricing uplift.

Last Quarter Review

Fair Isaac’s previous quarter delivered revenue of $0.52 billion, gross profit margin of 82.32%, GAAP net income attributable to shareholders of $0.16 billion, net profit margin of 30.06%, and adjusted EPS of $7.74, with year-over-year growth recorded in revenue and earnings. A notable highlight was disciplined pricing and operating leverage that lifted EBIT to $0.28 billion and enabled an adjusted EPS beat versus internal and external estimates. By business, Scores Solutions contributed $0.31 billion, On-Premise and SaaS Software delivered $0.18 billion, and Professional Services generated $0.02 billion, reflecting a resilient demand backdrop and favorable mix toward higher-margin offerings.

Current Quarter Outlook (with major analytical insights)

Scores Solutions: Pricing, breadth of use-cases, and data-partner distribution

Scores Solutions remains the central earnings engine, underpinned by increasing adoption across consumer credit, small-business risk, and identity/verification workflows. The quarter’s setup hinges on the durability of pricing actions implemented over the last year and the continued expansion of Scores in adjacent use-cases, which support double-digit revenue growth against a stable macro backdrop. We expect the line’s high incremental margins to sustain consolidated gross profit margin in the low-80.00% range, with EBIT leverage evident if transaction volumes and pricing both contribute. Outsize catalysts include deeper integration with data partners and lenders’ model refresh cycles, which can pull forward renewals and tier upgrades. The sensitivity, however, is to any slowdown in consumer credit formation or tighter underwriting that could modestly temper transactional flow, although contract minimums and multi-year structures typically buffer volatility.

Software (On-Premise and SaaS): Platform transition, cloud attach, and subscription mix

The Software segment continues to pivot toward higher recurring SaaS and platform solutions that embed decisioning and optimization into lender workflows. For the quarter, we expect steady revenue from existing deployments and a gradual lift in cloud attach rates as customers expand features and decision automation, supporting healthy gross margins though below Scores levels. The mix shift toward subscription and multi-year agreements improves revenue visibility and should provide a tailwind to EBIT margin over time, even as near-term services intensity around implementations moderates. Deal timing remains an execution variable; however, the installed base and pipeline breadth suggest a constructive billings pattern through the fiscal year. If conversion from pilots to paid subscriptions accelerates, the segment can add a second margin lever alongside Scores, improving consolidated earnings quality.

Key Stock Drivers: Margin durability, EPS cadence, and renewal pipeline

Investors are focused on the sustainability of low-80.00% gross margin and a net profit margin profile near 30.00%, which together underpin the consensus EPS trajectory of $7.06 this quarter and mid-teens growth year over year. The cadence of renewals within Scores, especially among top lenders and card issuers, is a visible catalyst; favorable pricing and indexation mechanisms can compound growth, while new analytics modules elevate average revenue per customer. Management’s capital allocation toward share repurchases can supplement EPS, but operating execution in software migrations and delivery milestones will be central to multiple stability. The risk skew is concentrated in macro credit formation and any delay in enterprise decisioning projects, although multi-year contracts and diversified use-cases provide partial offsets to volatility in one vertical.

Analyst Opinions

Across published views during the period, the balance of commentary leans bullish, with the majority emphasizing resilient pricing power in Scores and constructive software pipeline execution. Well-known institutional analysts highlight that consensus revenue of $0.50 billion and adjusted EPS of $7.06 are achievable given recent outperformance in EBIT of $0.28 billion and consistent low-80.00% gross margins. The positive camp underscores three pillars: predictable renewal cycles in core Scores, steady cloud transition in software with higher lifetime value, and disciplined operating expense control that sustains double-digit EBIT growth. In this view, potential upside rests on faster-than-modeled software subscription ramp and incremental contribution from new risk and identity modules embedded in lending workflows. The bullish stance concludes that margin durability and pricing power should support EPS growth at or above mid-teens, aligning with the current-quarter model and reinforcing confidence into the next two fiscal quarters.