通胀粘性或令两年期收益率下降幅度收窄 -- 市场观点

投资观察
Sep 29, 2025

法国外贸银行分析师约翰·布里格斯表示,在未来几个月里,两年期美国国债可能不会像美联储降息时期的典型表现那样走势。关键因素在于,在通胀仍高于目标水平的情况下实施货币宽松政策。

布里格斯指出,如果通胀未能回落,"市场可能不会预期转向宽松政策的概率很大"。他还表示,"两年期收益率可能不会跌破我目前预期的3%,而是仅降至3.25%左右,这对收益率曲线的更远端将产生相应影响。"

目前,两年期收益率小幅下跌,报3.631%。

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