U.S. Treasury futures surged to intraday highs as the yield curve steepened, following September CPI data that showed both overall and core inflation increases falling short of market expectations.
On this day, the yield curve exhibited a bull steepening trend: the 2-year and 5-year yields fell approximately 4 basis points from Thursday’s close, while the spreads between the 2s10s and 5s30s widened by 1.2 basis points and 2.5 basis points, respectively. The yield on the 10-year Treasury decreased by 4 basis points, hovering around 3.96%.
The OIS corresponding to the Federal Reserve meeting displayed a slightly dovish stance, with market expectations indicating a cumulative rate cut of 49 basis points over the remaining two meetings this year (an increase from Thursday’s expected 47 basis points). The anticipated cut for the October meeting remains around 24 basis points.