Even before the escalation of tensions, the oil shipping industry was already experiencing strong market conditions. This year has seen a continuous improvement in the outlook for crude oil transportation. Recently, driven by expectations of escalating tensions involving Iran, VLCC-TCE rates had already surged to high levels exceeding $200,000 per day even before the outbreak of conflict. Regardless of the impact from the Iran situation, the oil shipping sector is currently in a relatively certain upward cycle. Dongxing Securities pointed out that, with external catalysts, the industry's freight rate benchmark for 2026 is expected to exceed expectations.

According to Kpler data, it is estimated that approximately 10 oil tankers will dock at Yanbu Port, alleviating concerns over "having prices but no market." This is anticipated to further increase the number of VLCCs. The shipping distance from Yanbu Port/Hormuz Strait to Qingdao Port has risen by about 18%. Furthermore, considering the shipment capacities of Yanbu Port and Fujairah Port, any supply gap may seek supplementation from the US Gulf, which could extend the distance growth to over 30%.

In the short term, releasing strategic reserves and adjusting supply chains may help mitigate the geopolitical impact of US-Iran conflicts. However, finding ways to partially restore transit capacity through the Hormuz Strait remains the key solution. Once restrictions are lifted, compensatory demand is expected to maintain high freight rates for tanker transportation. If vessel utilization becomes constrained, it could further drive up rates.

Attention should be paid to the historic increase in the concentration of VLCC capacity, which is reshaping the freight rate pricing mechanism. On one hand, a "quasi-alliance" structure is enhancing shipowners' bargaining power. Meanwhile, an alliance-like formation involving Sinokor, MSC, and Trafigura, with rental surpluses from their fleets, strengthens the alliance's ability to further expand capacity, potentially leading to even greater concentration.

A CITIC Securities research report stated that disruptions to transit through the Hormuz Strait are reshaping the global energy landscape. Short-term uncertainties are still likely to push freight rates higher, without altering the expectation that leading oil shipping companies could achieve record profits in 2026.

Regarding leading oil shipping companies in Hong Kong stocks: COSCO SHIP ENGY (01138) operates a fleet of 159 oil tankers with a total deadweight tonnage of 23.74 million DWT. It has 12 oil tankers under construction, totaling 2.364 million DWT, making it the world's largest oil tanker operator by capacity. Among the 87 LNG vessels the Group has invested in and built, 50 are already in operation, with a capacity of 8.42 million cubic meters. The Group also owns 8 chemical tankers with approximately 73,000 DWT. Oil shipping serves as the company's core business, contributing over 80% of its revenue for nearly a decade. International crude oil and refined product transportation are the main drivers of profit flexibility, while domestic oil shipping and LNG transportation form the foundation of its earnings. As of September 2025, based on a unified deadweight tonnage calculation, oil tankers, LNG carriers, chemical tankers, and LPG carriers accounted for 83.2%, 16.5%, 0.3%, and 0.1% of the fleet capacity, respectively.