ECB President Hints at Potential June Inflation Forecast Revision, Long-Term Outlook Firm at 2%

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14 hours ago

ECB President Christine Lagarde indicated that the central bank is likely to revise its inflation forecast for this year upward at its June policy meeting, as the macroeconomic landscape continues to evolve. However, she emphasized that long-term inflation expectations remain anchored and have not deviated from the 2% target. In an appearance on the Italian talk show "Che Tempo Che Fa" on Sunday, Lagarde noted that the March projection of a 2.6% rise in eurozone prices this year "may be revised," given the changes since then. Her remarks align with recent signals from several policymakers. Governing Council member Alexander Demarco had previously suggested in an interview that the inflation forecast, issued shortly after the outbreak of the Iran conflict, might have been overly optimistic. Despite the potential upward revision to short-term inflation prospects, Lagarde sought to reassure on long-term expectations during a speech in Nicosia, Cyprus, following a Eurogroup meeting last Friday. She stated that while the energy crisis is driving inflation higher and putting pressure on the economy, "long-term inflation expectations remain broadly well anchored." She added that the impact of the conflict on medium-term inflation and economic activity would depend on the intensity, duration, and scale of indirect effects from the energy price shock. Regarding market focus on whether a rate hike will commence on June 11, Lagarde declined to provide clear signals in both appearances, maintaining a stance of forward guidance ambiguity. On Sunday, she remarked, "The current situation is highly uncertain. We must examine all available data, assess how the economy will evolve over the coming quarters, and then determine whether action is needed and what its medium-term impact would be. Our medium-term target is 2%." Last Friday, she also reiterated that the ECB would continue its data-dependent, meeting-by-meeting approach to fulfill its firm commitment to price stability in a highly uncertain environment. Nevertheless, market bets on a rate hike remain steady. Economists and investors widely anticipate that the ECB will announce a 25-basis-point rate increase on June 11. Many of Lagarde's colleagues have also hinted that such a tightening move may be unavoidable unless a lasting peace agreement is reached between the U.S. and Iran.

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