Holiday spending and trade-in policies have accelerated the recovery in consumption. The faster issuance of special bonds has spurred infrastructure project starts, leading to improved production and sales of construction machinery and providing strong support from the investment side. A significant rebound in the new export orders index indicates improving external demand... Recently released macroeconomic data sends positive signals, suggesting a favorable start for China's economy in the first quarter.
Consumption continues to warm up. Data from Suning.com shows that from April 4 to 6, store foot traffic nationwide increased by 62% month-on-month, with sales rising 33.5% compared to the previous period. During the Qingming Festival holiday, travel demand was robust, with sales of travel gear such as AI imaging phones, action cameras, and smart wristbands all surging over 50% month-on-month... The sustained recovery in consumption since the beginning of the year is reflected across various datasets.
An official from the State Taxation Administration stated that value-added invoice data indicates that from January 1 to March 25, service consumption maintained relatively rapid growth. Sales revenue from homestay services and residential services increased by 15.3% and 7.3% year-on-year, respectively. The extended Spring Festival holiday boosted the cultural and tourism markets, with active cultural tourism and recreational activities. Sales revenue for travel agencies and related services, as well as cultural, sports, and entertainment industries, rose by 14.3% and 14.1% year-on-year, respectively. The official noted that service consumption vitality is being released, and the pull effect of holiday economics is evident.
The continued improvement in the services sector's景气度 further confirms the positive trend of consumption recovery. Data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on March 31 shows that the Business Activity Index for the services sector was 50.2% in March, up 0.5 percentage points from the previous month. The Services Business Activity Expectation Index stood at 54.8%, remaining at a relatively high level.
An economist stated that in the first quarter, driven by the extended Spring Festival holiday and trade-in policies, both total retail sales of consumer goods and service consumption showed a good rebound momentum. He suggested that going into the second quarter, the growth of consumption will depend more on the recovery of household income expectations and the sustainability of consumption willingness.
Infrastructure investment is showing strength. Excavators are considered a standard fixture in infrastructure construction and a barometer for observing the progress of infrastructure projects and fixed asset investment indicators. The latest excavator index reveals that in February, the national operating rate for port equipment reached 33.61%, a year-on-year increase of 3.91 percentage points, with workload growth rate rising 12.13% year-on-year. Despite the impact of the Spring Festival holiday, port equipment achieved year-on-year growth in both operating rate and workload. In February, the operating rates for seven types of equipment, including container handlers, pavers, and mixer trucks, increased year-on-year.
According to statistics from the China Construction Machinery Association for major truck crane manufacturers, from January to February, a total of 3,090 truck cranes were sold, a year-on-year increase of 5.71%. Domestic sales accounted for 1,550 units, up 2.38% year-on-year, while exports reached 1,540 units, growing 9.3% year-on-year.
A research report analysis indicated that driven by the accelerated issuance of special bonds, indicators related to infrastructure and construction starts have shown marginal improvement. An economist explained that on one hand, the issuance of new special bonds designated for construction projects has accelerated; on the other hand, major engineering projects are being implemented faster, leading to stronger infrastructure investment in March.
Regarding manufacturing investment, value-added invoice data released by the State Taxation Administration shows that from January 1 to March 25, corporate spending on purchasing mechanical equipment, which reflects enterprise equipment updates, increased by 8.4% year-on-year, maintaining a relatively fast growth trend. Specifically, purchases of mechanical equipment by the information technology services and scientific research and technical services industries grew by 15.8% and 27.2% year-on-year, respectively, indicating strong momentum for equipment renewal.
A chief economist noted that overall, supported by profit recovery, equipment update policies, and the expansion of high-end manufacturing, manufacturing investment is expected to continue its slight upward trend.
External trade demonstrates notable resilience. Leading indicators suggest a clear improvement in external demand. Data released by the National Bureau of Statistics shows that the new export orders sub-index within the March Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 49.1%, rising 4.1 percentage points from February.
A chief economist commented that despite escalating geopolitical conflicts, they have not currently impacted the fundamental aspects of exports. A chief macro analyst added that high-frequency data indicates global manufacturing has been in a state of continuous expansion recently, with overall external demand remaining relatively strong. He noted that despite the impact of the shifting Spring Festival holiday timing, China's exports in March still had a significant uplifting effect on domestic manufacturing景气度.
Shipping market data also concurrently releases positive signals of strengthening external demand. According to data from the Shanghai Shipping Exchange, as of April 3, the China Containerized Freight Index stood at 1184.70 points, up 4.0% compared to the previous period (March 27). The Shanghai Containerized Freight Index was 1854.96 points, an increase of 28.19 points from the previous period (March 27).
Experts believe that the continuous improvement in China's economic景气度 and the consolidation of the economic recovery and upward trend provide solid support for the stable development of China's export container shipping market.
Looking ahead to the second quarter, a chief economist expressed that, benefiting from China's industrial advantages in "new three" categories, exports are expected to maintain a high growth trend.