On January 30th, gold's recent robust rally is challenging global investors' perceptions in an unprecedented manner. According to FXGT, the current trajectory of gold prices is no longer a simple fluctuation but is actively dismantling the analytical frameworks that investors and economists have relied on for decades. In the context of failing traditional models, gold, as a core asset for hedging against geopolitical fractures and fiat currency credibility crises, is undergoing a historic reshaping of its pricing logic.

Addressing the lag in traditional valuation models, Nitesh Shah, Head of Research at WisdomTree, believes that existing pricing systems are largely based on steady-state data from the 1990s to early 2020, an external environment characterized by low inflation and high credibility that has now completely vanished. FXGT observes that although the spot gold price has recently retreated from highs above $5,500 to around $5,287, a drop of over 2%, the market is not displaying irrational bubble characteristics. Conversely, even with moderate speculative position changes, the gold price remains elevated, reflecting that the market has entered a "new normal" following a "structural break." FXGT states that as new risks continue to emerge outside of historical data, the prospect of gold reaching the $6,000 milestone by year-end is becoming increasingly plausible.

Geopolitical risk has transformed from an occasional "tail risk" into a normalized backdrop for the market. Entering 2026, factors ranging from trade realignment to the ripple effects of regional situations have led to a global market consensus on "persistent instability." Shah emphasizes that even if localized tensions temporarily cool, investors' doubts about the independence of monetary institutions continue to provide solid support for gold prices. Citing data, FXGT indicates that the current average allocation to gold in global investment portfolios is only 1% to 2%, far below the optimal ratio of 15% to 20%. This structural under-allocation implies that even a minimal flow of funds from the bond market back into gold could exert a significant price-boosting effect on this relatively niche sector.

Regarding market concerns about a repeat of the 2013 gold crash, Shah believes the current macroeconomic drivers are fundamentally different from those over a decade ago. Back then, a clear shift in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy was the trigger for the sharp decline; today, facing decentralized and complex political risks, a bearish consensus is difficult to form. FXGT concludes that gold possesses dual attributes spanning debt and equity, performing well in both inflationary growth and crisis defense scenarios. Although gold prices are already at historical highs, in 2026—a year of persistently rising "fiat currency risk premiums"—gold's long-term upside potential is not yet fully realized, and any blind short-selling based on outdated frameworks could face extremely high risk costs.