Three OPEC+ sources indicate that the alliance is leaning toward restoring production increases starting in April. This move comes as the group prepares for peak summer demand and benefits from oil price strength bolstered by tensions between the United States and Iran. The decision would allow OPEC leaders Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates to reclaim market share, while other members such as Russia, Venezuela, and Iran continue to struggle under Western sanctions. Kazakhstan’s output has also been constrained by a series of setbacks.

The eight OPEC+ nations—Saudi Arabia, Russia, the UAE, Kazakhstan, Kuwait, Iraq, Algeria, and Oman—are scheduled to meet on March 1. These countries had previously raised production quotas by approximately 2.9 million barrels per day between April 2025 and December 2025, equivalent to about 3% of global demand. They later paused further increases planned for January to March 2026 due to weak seasonal consumption.

Despite market speculation that oversupply could curb oil prices this year, the Brent crude benchmark continues to trade near $68 per barrel, not far from the six-month high of $71.89 reached in January amid U.S.-Iran tensions. Three unnamed OPEC+ sources confirmed that the eight member states are inclined to resume production quota hikes beginning in April. Three additional sources familiar with OPEC+ internal deliberations also expect the increase to be reinstated in April.

However, two other OPEC+ sources noted that no final decision has been made, and negotiations will continue in the weeks leading up to the March 1 meeting. OPEC, as well as relevant authorities in Russia and Saudi Arabia, have not yet responded to requests for comment.