On March 3rd, gold experienced significant volatility, resembling a rollercoaster ride. The Asian trading session opened with a sharp rise to near $5390, followed by a swift decline to the $5300 mark. During the European session, the price surged to a near one-month high of $5418. However, all intraday gains were erased in the US session, with the metal ultimately closing at $5320, finishing the day with a positive candlestick.
The most direct and core driver behind Tuesday's price surge was undoubtedly the sudden escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. This conflict is not an isolated incident but reflects the accelerating fragmentation of the global order in the potential "Trump 2.0" era. From the reported capture of the Venezuelan president by US forces in January, to threats of annexing Greenland, and now the large-scale military buildup in the Middle East, Washington's increasingly aggressive foreign policy is fundamentally eroding the credibility underpinning the US dollar system.
It can be argued that this accelerating geopolitical fragmentation is prompting central banks within the BRICS nations to persistently reduce their dollar-denominated assets and increase gold holdings, a trend expected to continue. The key near-term focus lies on the scale of Iran's potential retaliation within the next 24-48 hours, alongside progress in technical negotiations in Vienna. Should Iran coordinate with groups like Yemen's Houthis and Lebanon's Hezbollah to widen the conflict, or move to blockade Red Sea shipping lanes, it could trigger a breakout surge in gold prices. Conversely, a rapid de-escalation would likely see the associated risk premium quickly evaporate.
From a technical perspective, on the daily chart, the long-term upward trend channel remains intact, with the price firmly positioned above all key moving averages. The MACD indicator shows a bullish crossover with expanding red bars, pointing towards a next target zone of $5480-$5550. Immediate support is seen around $5300 (the 5-day moving average), with stronger support situated between $5200 and $5250.
In summary, each escalation in the Middle East injects immediate safe-haven support into gold prices. However, surging oil prices and the resulting inflationary pressures are quietly constraining the monetary policy flexibility of global central banks, creating a longer-term headwind for gold. This intense clash between short-term bullish factors and medium-term bearish pressures dictates the current market's characteristics: high volatility, frequent reversals, and elevated risk. Specifically, traders should adopt a "range-hunting" strategy, capitalizing on market fear and greed by buying near support and selling near resistance within the core $5250-$5450 oscillation zone. Every trade must be accompanied by strict stop-loss orders.
Therefore, the intraday trading recommendations are as follows: Gold: Execute long positions in the $5330-$5340 range, with a stop-loss set at $5320, targeting $5430-$5450. If the target is breached, positions can be held. If resistance holds, consider reversing to short positions, targeting lower levels accordingly.
Key financial data and events to watch today, Tuesday, March 3rd: 22:55 Fed Williams delivers a speech. 23:10 Fed Schmid delivers a speech. Next Day 00:55 Fed Kashkari delivers a speech.