Title

Earning Preview: Gray Television this quarter’s revenue is expected to decrease by 24.83%, and institutional views are cautious

Abstract

Gray Television will report results on February 26, 2026, Pre-Market; the preview below synthesizes the latest quarterly data, the company’s guidance proxies, and sell-side expectations to frame revenue, margin, EPS, and segment dynamics heading into the print.

Market Forecast

Consensus as reflected in the most recent company-aggregated forecasts points to Gray Television’s current-quarter revenue of 780.34 million, down 24.83% year over year, with an EPS estimate of -0.30 and EBIT of 104.01 million, implying year-over-year declines of 122.58% and 65.63%, respectively; gross margin and net margin forecasts were not disclosed in the available dataset. The main business is expected to be driven by the balance between core advertising and retransmission fees, with management execution around pricing, inventory utilization, and affiliate fee dynamics setting the tone for operating leverage and margin cadence. The most promising segment from a near-term stability perspective is retransmission fees, which delivered 346.00 million last quarter; while year-over-year segment growth was not provided, its predictable fee base is positioned to dampen volatility versus advertising cycles.

Last Quarter Review

Gray Television’s previous quarter delivered revenue of 749.00 million, a gross profit margin of 24.70%, GAAP net profit attributable to the parent company of -10.00 million, a net profit margin of -1.34%, and adjusted EPS of -0.24; on a year-over-year basis, revenue declined 21.16% and EPS fell 127.59%. A notable operational highlight was execution against expectations: EPS beat by $0.15 and EBIT outperformed estimates by 22.23 million, suggesting tighter cost control and better-than-modeled operating efficiency despite cyclical topline pressure. In the business mix, core advertising contributed 355.00 million and retransmission fees contributed 346.00 million, with production company revenue of 25.00 million, political revenue of 8.00 million, and other revenue of 15.00 million.

Current Quarter Outlook

Main Business: Core Advertising

Core advertising remains central to Gray Television’s revenue base and near-term performance narrative. The last quarter showed 355.00 million in core advertising revenue, reflecting the impact of category-specific spending and the pacing of clients’ budgets relative to programming schedules. For the current quarter, management’s focus will likely be on optimizing inventory sell-through, tightening pricing discipline, and aligning demand with available audience reach to mitigate headwinds implied by the 24.83% year-over-year decline in total revenue estimates. The mix within core advertising often hinges on local and regional categories—automotive, healthcare, retail, and services—each of which tends to shift with macro signals, and these shifts can influence average unit rates and spot volumes. With EPS projected at -0.30 and EBIT at 104.01 million, the translation from advertising trends to margins will be shaped by operating efficiency and the degree to which cost savings offset revenue softness. A disciplined approach to programming costs, sales incentives, and promotional spending will be important for protecting gross margin and stabilizing net results amid the anticipated topline contraction.

Most Promising Segment: Retransmission Fees

Retransmission fees provided 346.00 million last quarter, offering a steadier revenue stream that can counterbalance variability in advertising demand. This segment’s predictability tends to come from contractual fee structures with distributors, where negotiated rates and subscriber counts determine the quarterly run-rate; the latter can fluctuate, but the contractual floor typically supports more resilient revenue continuity versus spot advertising. In the current quarter, the retransmission revenue base represents a key ballast for the consolidated P&L as estimates point to year-over-year declines for total revenue and EBIT; operational execution in affiliate negotiations and monitoring of subscriber trends will matter for preserving revenue visibility. While explicit year-over-year segment growth data was not provided in the dataset, the configuration of retransmission fees historically helps smooth revenue and contribute to cash generation that supports programming and capital expenditure planning. Sustained fee revenue strengthens the company’s ability to navigate fluctuations in advertising demand, and it can help stabilize operating margins by providing a recurring contractual underpinning during periods of softer ad sales.

Stock Price Drivers This Quarter

The most immediate stock-price drivers will be how the reported figures align with the EPS estimate of -0.30, the revenue estimate of 780.34 million (down 24.83% year over year), and the EBIT estimate of 104.01 million (down 65.63% year over year). Share performance is likely to respond to any deviations from these benchmarks, particularly in the direction of margin resilience and cash generation relative to forecasted declines. Some investors will scrutinize the quality of revenue—how much stems from contractual retransmission fees versus more cyclical advertising—because this mix can shape the perceived durability of the earnings stream. Cost discipline will also be a key lens: last quarter’s outperformance versus EPS and EBIT expectations suggests a foundation of operating efficiency, and any further evidence of expense control can temper the negative implications of a lower topline. Balance sheet considerations, including interest expense sensitivity and leverage metrics, can influence equity valuation when earnings momentum is under pressure; market participants will be attentive to signals around financing costs continuity, maturities management, and any incremental steps that support liquidity and flexibility. If management provides granular color on pacing within advertising categories or on retransmission fee trajectories, the clarity itself can impact sentiment by improving visibility and reducing uncertainty embedded in the current consensus.

Analyst Opinions

Across the available commentary in the specified window, explicit sell-side previews were limited, yet the balance of views implied by estimates is cautious, tilting bearish on near-term growth given the projected year-over-year declines in revenue, EPS, and EBIT. The inferred majority expectation emphasizes risk management and operational execution over growth, focusing on whether the company can meet or modestly beat the -0.30 EPS estimate while protecting margins despite softer revenue. Under this lens, analysts who track the name have typically highlighted the importance of retransmission fee stability and cost containment as levers that can mitigate the cyclical drag in advertising. The majority perspective flags key signposts to watch: the cadence of core advertising recovery indicators in local categories, any commentary on pricing and sell-through rates, and detail on retransmission fee dynamics that influence recurring revenue visibility. The prevailing stance is that near-term earnings durability could depend on incremental improvements in operating efficiency and revenue mix, and that the market will likely reward greater momentum in cash generation and margin protection relative to the conservative baseline assumption embedded in current estimates.