Wanlian Securities has released a research report stating that the outlook for the 2026 Spring Festival movie season shows a rich supply of film types, providing fundamental support for the overall market. Considering film expectations and the market environment, the total box office for the period is anticipated to be stable, with the final performance heavily dependent on actual quality and audience word-of-mouth. The report suggests focusing on core producers, distributors, and leading companies related to high-quality films and cinema chains. The main points from Wanlian Securities are as follows:
Looking at the films scheduled for release during the 2026 Spring Festival season, six have garnered significant market attention. These are "Pegasus 3," "Silent Awakening," "Biao Ren: Wind Rises in the Desert," "Boonie Bears: Annual Bear," "Dreaming of the Stars," and "Panda Plan: Tribal Adventure."
Overall Box Office Review: The 2025 Spring Festival season set a new historical high for box office revenue, with a pronounced effect from top-performing films. The Spring Festival season is one of the most crucial periods for the Chinese film market. In 2025, the season generated total revenue of 9.514 billion yuan, an increase of 18.36% year-on-year, setting a new record for the highest Spring Festival box office in Chinese film history. This achievement was primarily driven by the strong performance of leading films during the period. In terms of box office distribution, the top film of 2025, "Nezha: The Demon Child Descends Upon the Sea," accounted for over half of the single-film box office. Together with "Detective Chinatown 1900" and "Creation of the Gods II: Battle of West Qi," these top three films contributed over 85% of the season's total revenue, indicating significant market concentration. The combined effect of the long holiday and festive season propelled both the overall market scale and the breakout potential of individual films to new heights.
Internal Structure for 2026: The 2026 Spring Festival season features a mix of IP sequels and major new productions, with final box office results likely to be determined by word-of-mouth and film quality. 1) Pre-sales Status: According to data from Lighthouse Professional, as of 14:37 on February 9th, pre-sales for "Pegasus 3" reached 13.672 million yuan, with total scheduled screenings at 78,000 and total attendance at 271,000. "Silent Awakening" and "Biao Ren: Wind Rises in the Desert" ranked second and third with pre-sales of 12.062 million yuan and 8.186 million yuan, respectively. 2) Overall Situation: This year's Spring Festival lineup includes three IP franchise sequels: "Pegasus 3," "Boonie Bears: Annual Bear," and "Panda Plan: Tribal Adventure." Concurrently, new films with distinct themes, such as "Silent Awakening," "Biao Ren: Wind Rises in the Desert," and "Dreaming of the Stars," have also attracted market attention. Although these new themes lack the foundation of previous film works, their core creative teams and lead actors possess considerable industry influence and public recognition, which further strengthens the films' market competitiveness. With diverse film genres covered this season, the overall box office potential will depend more heavily on the actual word-of-mouth reception after release. 3) Box Office Forecast: The top three films in terms of projected box office revenue for the 2026 Spring Festival season are expected to be "Pegasus 3" (approximately 3.45 billion yuan), "Silent Awakening" (approximately 1.845 billion yuan), and "Biao Ren: Wind Rises in the Desert" (approximately 1.47 billion yuan). The forecasted total box office for the season is projected to reach 9.298 billion yuan.
Risk factors include films failing to meet expectations in terms of word-of-mouth or quality, risks of film release delays, and risks related to film reputation.