As the Year of the Horse market prepares to open, mutual fund incremental capital is ready to continue flowing in. According to statistics, stock ETFs and newly established active equity funds that completed fundraising before the Spring Festival and are awaiting deployment represent two major categories of mutual fund capital entering the market at the start of the Year of the Horse. The combined scale of these two categories exceeds 90 billion yuan. Mutual funds anticipate that the A-share market in the Year of the Horse may exhibit richer thematic drivers and a more balanced structure. "Technology and Growth" and "China's Advantages" are identified as the two core themes, with firm optimism for the long-term upward trend of the entire technology industry led by artificial intelligence, as well as for Chinese manufacturing sectors possessing global competitiveness.

ETF Positions Rapidly Increasing The first category of incoming mutual fund capital consists of stock ETFs. Wind data shows that as of February 14, three ETFs are scheduled to list during the first week of the Year of the Horse: E Fund CSI All Share Dividend Quality ETF, Huaan CSI Nonferrous Metals and Mining Theme ETF, and Guotai Hang Seng Biotechnology ETF. Together, they represent over 1 billion yuan of incoming capital, with listing dates on February 26, February 26, and February 24, respectively. Additionally, six ETFs were established in mid-February and will successively determine their market entry timing after the holiday. Based on their established sizes, these six ETFs represent nearly 3 billion yuan in incoming capital. Most of these products are thematic ETFs. For example, GF Fund and Morgan Fund both established Hang Seng Biotechnology ETFs, with a combined size exceeding 800 million yuan. Bosera Fund established the CSI Industrial Nonferrous Metals Theme ETF and the CSI Photovoltaic Industry ETF, raising a combined total of over 500 million yuan. Furthermore, E Fund established the Hang Seng A-Share Grid Equipment ETF, and ICBC Credit Suisse Fund established the CSI All Share Electric Utilities ETF. Combining these nine stock ETFs, the total capital entering the market at the start of the Year of the Horse will reach approximately 3 billion yuan. Individual investors are the main force behind this ETF inflow, with many products seeing individual investor holdings reach 90%. For instance, the Guotai Hang Seng Biotechnology ETF, listed on February 24, has individual investors holding 288 million units, accounting for over 95% of the fund's total units. Among its top ten holders, 10 out of 12 are individual investors. Similarly, the Huaan CSI Nonferrous Metals and Mining Theme ETF, listed on February 26, has individual investors holding 460 million units, representing 83.85% of the total. The E Fund CSI All Share Dividend Quality ETF, also listed on February 26, has individual investor holdings exceeding 95%. Looking at ETFs that listed just before the holiday, related capital rapidly increased positions to position for the Year of the Horse market. For example, the Wanjia China New Energy Vehicle Battery ETF, listed on February 12, had an equity position of less than 20% as of February 5. By the eve of its listing on February 11, the proportion of assets invested in constituent stocks and alternative constituents of its target index had reached 96.94% of its net asset value. Similarly, the Yongying CSI Livestock Breeding Industry ETF, also listed on February 12, had an equity position below 10% as of February 5, which surged to 98.51% of its net asset value invested in the target index components by February 11.

New Active Equity Funds Poised for Deployment The second category of mutual fund capital entering the market consists of actively managed equity funds established around the year-end and beginning of the new year, which are now in their build-up phase. Wind data indicates that as of February 14, 112 equity funds (including ordinary stock funds and partial equity hybrid funds, excluding asset management collective transformation funds) have been established since December 2025, with a total fundraising scale of approximately 88.75 billion yuan. Specifically, 29 funds raised over 1 billion yuan each. Among them, GF Research Intelligent Selection, Huabao Advantage Industry, and Yinhua Zhixiang three funds raised more than 5 billion yuan, with amounts of 7.221 billion yuan, 5.777 billion yuan, and 5.099 billion yuan, and effective subscription numbers of 78,500, 61,300, and 50,400 households, respectively. Additionally, five funds, including Morgan Stanley Shanghai-Hong Kong-Shenzhen Technology, GF Quality Preference, GF Growth Return, E Fund Balanced Selection, and Invesco Great Wall景气驱动, raised over 3 billion yuan each. In terms of investment focus, these newly established funds include both all-market strategy products and numerous sector-themed products. For example, technology-focused funds include Ping An Semiconductor领航精选, Bank of Shanghai Technology先锋, and BOC先锋 Semiconductor. Consumer-focused funds include Oriental Red Consumer研选, Wanjia Consumption Opportunity, and Taishan Consumer精选. Healthcare-focused funds include E Fund Hong Kong Stock Connect Healthcare, China Merchants Healthcare Quantitative Stock Selection, Hongde Healthcare精选, and CITIC Prudential Healthcare精选. Furthermore, there are theme products focusing on the digital economy (Fullgoal Digital Economy) and low-carbon economy (Dongxing Low-Carbon Economy), among others. As of the market close on February 14, the net value fluctuations of these newly established funds have generally been minor since inception, indicating they are still in the early stages of position building, with the majority of raised capital yet to be deployed. Specifically, the 112 funds have an average return rate of 1.16% since establishment, with a median return of -0.03%. GF Research Intelligent Selection, established on January 20, has seen a return rate of -0.9% for its A-share class since inception. BOC先锋 Semiconductor, established on January 15, has a return rate of 1.08% for its A-share class. Zhongou Value Preference, established on January 23, has a return rate of -0.3% for its A-share class. Wanjia Consumption Opportunity, established on January 29, has a return rate of -0.59% for its A-share class.

Focus on Two Core Themes in the Year of the Horse Looking ahead to investment in the Year of the Horse, Chen Heng, portfolio manager of Huashang Xin'an Flexible Allocation Mixed Fund, believes that while the nonferrous metals and AI themes were prominent throughout 2025, entering the new year, with dynamic adjustments in market valuations and the continuous evolution of industrial logic, the risk-reward profiles of some other industries are gradually becoming more attractive. The A-share market is expected to show richer thematic drivers and a more balanced structure. Chen Heng stated that the nonferrous metals sector still offers an attractive risk-reward ratio, benefiting from global demand and value reassessment. Beyond this, he is also paying attention to sectors like power equipment, chemicals, and aviation: power equipment represents new core competitiveness in Chinese manufacturing, is an indispensable "utensil" for AI energy needs, and is a main force in "going global"; the chemical sector may witness a double boost in profits and valuations alongside the reassessment of commodities; and the aviation industry is experiencing multiple positive factors from supply-demand improvements and a recovery in industry景气. Future focus will be on tracking the alignment between fundamentals and valuations in these sectors to capture medium-to-long-term growth opportunities for investors. Peng Xinyang, portfolio manager of Huashang Industrial Upgrade Mixed Fund, expressed firm optimism for the long-term upward trend of the entire technology industry led by AI, which is iterating and breaking through at a rapid pace, catalyzed by the concentration of global capital, computing power, and talent. Leveraging vast application scenarios and a deep industrial ecosystem, Chinese AI not only has the potential for rapid technological catch-up but also holds unique advantages for overtaking at the application layer. On the supply side, with persistent dedication to independent innovation and a long-term focus, the domestic computing power system is destined to mature, strengthen, and gain significant influence. Regarding the semiconductor sector, Xiao Ruijin, portfolio manager of Bosera Digital Economy Mixed Fund, believes that from an industrial development trend perspective, China has entered a harvest cycle for domestic semiconductor technological innovation. Continued investment in key semiconductor processes, equipment, and materials is expected to yield significant innovative results gradually. This will be reflected in the enhanced comprehensive strength of China's semiconductor industry chain and is likely to generate numerous investment opportunities. Maintaining a positive view on China's semiconductor industry, the fund will continue overweighting key processes, equipment, and materials crucial for semiconductor autonomy and innovation in the first quarter of 2026, overweighting AI domestic computing power chips, memory chips, and other cyclical semiconductors, while maintaining an underweight position in power semiconductors driven by new energy demand. Li Kunyuan, Executive General Manager of the Equity Investment Department at Manulife Fund, stated that the future focus will be on the two core themes of "Technology and Growth" and "China's Advantages," emphasizing the following structural opportunities: first, the AI industrial wave, from the certainty of overseas computing power infrastructure to the explosive opportunities in the domestic computing power产业链, and further to terminal innovations like robotics and intelligent driving, along with the commercial application of AI across various industries; second, Chinese manufacturing with global competitiveness, including leading enterprises with technological leadership and cost advantages in sectors like new energy, electronics, and machinery; third, attention to areas where fundamentals may reach an inflection point, such as chemicals, healthcare, and defense industries that have attractive valuations after long-term adjustments, as well as high-quality companies in pro-cyclical sectors where景气 has bottomed out.