Gold is reasserting its function as the ultimate measure of value beyond sovereign influence, becoming an indispensable "shadow anchor" in the global monetary system. As traditional macroeconomic analysis frameworks falter amid heightened geopolitical uncertainty, the pricing benchmark for assets is gradually tilting toward gold. This suggests that dollar-denominated commodities—measured through mean reversion paths such as the gold-to-oil ratio or gold-to-copper ratio—may face upward pressure on their price centers.
Signals of gold's resurgence are clear: from 2022 to 2024, global central banks' annual net gold purchases exceeded 1,000 tons for three consecutive years, far surpassing the average of 473 tons per year over the previous decade. By 2025, the total market value of global official gold reserves surpassed, for the first time, the total amount of U.S. Treasury securities held by foreign official institutions. This milestone indicates that gold has been reassigned by global monetary policymakers as a strategic reserve with "non-sovereign, sanction-resistant" attributes, marking a transition from ordinary asset allocation to a core credit endorsement role.
At a time when the three pillars of the U.S. dollar—institutional credibility, economic productivity, and military supremacy—are simultaneously weakening, global capital is urgently seeking a value anchor beyond sovereign control. Gold's strong comeback is a direct reflection of this historic shift. It is no longer just a safe-haven instrument but has become a core gauge for measuring the stability of sovereign credit and the restructuring of the global credit system. Its status and significance are being redefined by the times.
From a technical perspective, gold is expected to hit new highs next week. Operationally, it is advised to take profits on long positions in batches within the range of 5,350 to 5,450, with 5,450 being a previously significant resistance zone.
If gold convincingly breaks above 5,450, the probability of a rally toward 5,600 increases substantially. It may be prudent to wait for a firm hold above 5,600 before adding further positions. The tail end of a trend often sees sharp, volatile price swings with rapid gains and losses, making it difficult to navigate and prone to eroding profits; such conditions should be approached with caution.
On a monthly chart, gold has recorded seven consecutive positive monthly closes. If March also ends higher, it would mark an eighth consecutive monthly gain—a pattern not seen in gold's monthly performance over the past 30 years. This suggests a technical need for a monthly-level correction or a negative close. The key focus now is whether gold will correct below 5,600 first or rally further before pulling back. Market participants should monitor developments closely.
Within the broader bull market structure, and given the strong momentum of seven consecutive monthly gains, gold retains long-term potential to challenge the $6,000 level. Ongoing escalation in U.S.-Iran conflict risks, along with rising probabilities, intensity, and scope of warfare, continues to underpin solid safe-haven demand, providing strong support for gold prices.