On March 26, Bitcoin's recent attempt to challenge the $72,000 resistance level has shown signs of weakness, with widespread market skepticism regarding its potential for a further breakthrough. ZFX Shanhai Securities notes that due to geopolitical tensions and macroeconomic policy uncertainty, investor risk appetite has significantly reversed. Overall sentiment has shifted from earlier accumulation to a defensive strategy of reducing and distributing holdings. The spread of this risk-off mentality has directly contributed to sustained price pressure near key psychological barriers.
On-chain data indicates a clear contraction in market demand. Glassnode's Accumulation Trend Score is currently approaching zero, which, according to ZFX Shanhai Securities, signals a lack of confidence among both large institutional holders and smaller investors under current market conditions. Data shows that daily large transactions exceeding $100,000 have dropped to 6,417, hitting a new low since September 2023. Simultaneously, the index measuring overall network activity has been on a downward trend since August 2025. ZFX Shanhai Securities believes that in the absence of signals indicating "smart money" entering the market, the current stability appears artificial and lacks fundamental support. Short-term upward momentum is highly dependent on unexpected external positive news or forced short covering.
Supply-side pressures are also significant. Due to soaring energy costs, Bitcoin's hash rate has recently experienced a sharp decline of 22%. Related analysis indicates that the hash rate has fallen from its early March high to 813 EH/s, pushing the hash price below the break-even point for many miners. Data reveals that miners are currently facing an average loss of $19,000 for each token produced. The recent 7.8% drop in mining difficulty is a clear reflection of accelerating miner exits. If cost pressures on the production side are not alleviated, the resulting selling pressure on spot markets will further limit the potential for price recovery.
In summary, weak fundamentals are constraining Bitcoin's medium-term recovery path. ZFX Shanhai Securities argues that the current market rebound lacks organic internal drivers. If underlying on-chain metrics do not stabilize and recover soon, the divergence between price and fundamentals will eventually trigger a significant valuation correction. Unless there is a substantial improvement in macroeconomic liquidity conditions, the market is unlikely to enter a sustainable upward cycle. Only when investors at all levels return to a synchronized accumulation pattern will the market have a solid foundation for reaching higher levels.