Trump's Remarks Trigger Plunge in European Gas Prices, Falling 15% in a Single Day

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Yesterday

European natural gas prices declined on Tuesday after U.S. President Donald Trump predicted that the Iran conflict would conclude soon, as he faces mounting pressure over how the conflict is disrupting energy markets. At the time of writing, the benchmark European gas price, the Dutch front-month futures contract, fell by 15% to €48.27 per megawatt-hour. The benchmark futures followed oil prices lower, dropping by as much as 16% after experiencing extreme volatility in the previous trading session. Trump stated that he does not expect the conflict to end this week but insisted that operations are ahead of schedule and that a resolution could come "soon." Trump's comments provided some relief to energy markets, but their impact was "limited," wrote ING strategists Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey in a report. They noted that a recovery in traffic through the strategic Strait of Hormuz is necessary to sustain the downward price trend. This waterway handles approximately one-fifth of global liquefied natural gas shipments, primarily from the world's largest LNG facility in Qatar, which has been shut down since last week. Attacks in the region have not subsided so far, with several Middle Eastern countries reporting missile threats, sounding alarms, or intercepting drones on Tuesday. Now in its second week, the conflict has upended global oil and gas trade and could trigger the most severe supply disruption since Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022. The situation is particularly critical for European gas, as the region's fuel reserves are unusually low, and significant imports will be needed this summer to replenish stocks ahead of the next winter.

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