就业市场展现韧性的迹象正促使投资者缩减对今年降息的预期。
根据CME集团数据，周四午盘利率期货显示，美联储今年仅降息一次或根本不降息的可能性约为37%，较去年12月底的26%显著上升。与此同时，市场对三次或以上0.25个百分点降息的预期概率已从43%降至32%。
这一预期转变推动两年期美国国债收益率走高，使其与十年期国债收益率之间的利差收窄。周四公布的周度失业救济申请数据再度印证劳动力需求保持稳健，而此前12月就业报告显示的失业率下降亦强化了市场信心。
美国经济的强劲表现可能加剧美联储内部的政策分歧——由特朗普总统任命的官员主张降息，而其他成员则反对进一步调整政策。被华尔街视为央行中间派的纽约联储主席约翰·威廉姆斯周一表示"货币政策目前已处于有利位置"，暗示近期降息必要性降低。
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