Fed Beige Book Shows Little Change in Economic Activity, Further Decline in Consumer Spending

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The Federal Reserve's Beige Book indicated little change in U.S. economic activity in recent weeks, though overall consumer spending declined further—with the exception of high-end consumers.

The survey report released on Wednesday showed slight employment declines and modest price increases.

"Overall, the outlook remained largely unchanged," the report stated. "Some contacts noted increased risks of slower economic activity in the coming months, while manufacturers expressed some optimism."

The report was compiled by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas based on information collected by the 12 regional Fed banks through November 7.

With the longest government shutdown in U.S. history disrupting the collection and release of key economic data, unofficial reports on business and consumer conditions have drawn heightened attention. Fed officials will not receive most labor market and inflation data for October and November until after the December policy meeting.

The absence of nationwide official data has deepened divisions among Fed officials over whether to cut interest rates next month.

Market bets on the December meeting have fluctuated between a rate cut and no action, but traders now see an 80% chance of a December rate cut after two officials—typically aligned with Chair Jerome Powell's stance—signaled support for easing.

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