The 2024 semi-annual report of Kweichow Moutai Co., Ltd. revealed a significant shift: both Central Huijin and China Securities Finance Corporation (CSF) have completely liquidated their holdings, exiting the top ten shareholders list. This marks the end of a decade-long strategic investment chapter.
In the third quarter of 2015, during a market rescue operation, CSF and Central Huijin first appeared as top ten shareholders, with CSF holding 2.99% (third-largest) and Central Huijin holding 0.86% (seventh-largest). A decade later, by the first quarter of 2024, their stakes had reduced to 0.83% and 0.32% respectively. By the second quarter, both had completely sold out. CSF's entry cost in 2015 was approximately 200-250 yuan per share (adjusted for splits), while Moutai's current stock price is around 1,300 yuan, yielding a paper profit of 5-6 times. This was not a panic sell but a calculated exit after a decade of holding.
What is the significance of Central Huijin's exit?
CSF's role as a "firefighter" in 2015, funded by commercial loans and broker contributions with high annual interest costs of about 80 billion yuan, logically necessitated an exit. However, Central Huijin, which typically acts as a "ballast stone" using its own capital and central bank relending funds, and had held its position unchanged for quarters, also exited. This move carries stronger signaling power, suggesting that even the most stable, long-term holder is reducing its exposure.
Why is the timing of the exit notable?
Moutai's semi-annual report shows revenue of 90.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.47%, but total profit of 61.4 billion yuan (down 2.13%) and net profit of 44.5 billion yuan (down 1.95%). This "revenue growth without profit growth" is a rare performance for Moutai. Concurrently, major mutual funds collectively reduced their holdings by 25.11 million shares in the same period, estimating a cash-out of nearly 30 billion yuan at 1,200 yuan per share. The near-simultaneous exit by national funds and mutual funds is unlikely to be a coincidence.
What is the strategic backdrop for this move?
It was suggested that the best strategy for Guizhou provincial authorities was not to hold Moutai stock indefinitely as a passive "ballast stone," but to realize gains at peak prices to support local debt construction. Years ago, when Moutai's market cap was 860 billion yuan and Guizhou's local debt was 800 billion yuan, selling Moutai shares to pay off debt was a viable proposal. This still holds true today. Essentially, national fund holdings are not a tool for mindless market support but a form of asset management with clear entry and exit strategies. The current exit signals the completion of a phased mission rather than a bearish outlook on Moutai. For retail investors clinging to the "drink and medicine" faith, seeing the national team exit first is a bittersweet reminder that the remaining narrative will now depend on Guizhou's State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission and northbound capital.