Recent market rumors suggesting delays or cancellation of Alphabet's next-generation TPU v9 project are unfounded, according to a new JPMorgan report. The report clearly refutes these claims, stating the project, developed by Broadcom, is progressing as planned with mass production expected in 2028. The report also notes that Alphabet's internal chip design team remains at least 18 months behind Broadcom in technical capability.

More importantly, JPMorgan believes the market is overlooking a five-year cooperation agreement signed by the two companies in March. This agreement not only secures Broadcom's design leadership for the next four generations of TPUs (v8 through v11) but also includes escalating purchase commitments, extending the visibility for Broadcom's AI-related revenue directly out to 2031.

JPMorgan's view is that investors are overly focused on the potential competition from Alphabet's self-developed ASICs, while underestimating Broadcom's deep moat in advanced chip design, packaging technology, and IP accumulation. As global large language model developers accelerate their shift towards custom AI chips, Broadcom stands to be one of the biggest beneficiaries of this infrastructure wave. The report forecasts the company's AI business revenue will grow 2 to 2.5 times year-over-year by 2027 and double again in 2028.

TPU v9 Project Status Clarified

JPMorgan's latest supply chain checks indicate no changes to the development of Alphabet's next-generation AI training chip, TPU v9. The project, led by Broadcom and targeting mass production in 2028, is proceeding without the delays or cancellations rumored externally. The chip utilizes a 2nm process, integrates four computing chips, 16 HBM groups, and a 400Gbps SerDes interface, forming a key part of Alphabet's AI infrastructure.

In fact, Broadcom initiated IP design in the first half of 2025 and transitioned to SoC development in the second half, with the project consistently holding top internal priority. Concurrently, preliminary R&D for the subsequent TPU v10 has also begun. From product planning to development pace, the partnership between Alphabet and Broadcom appears solid, with no basis for market concerns about a rift.

Long-Term Agreement Secures Roadmap

The report highlights that the market is missing a more critical piece of information: the new five-year agreement signed in March locks in the product roadmap for the next four TPU generations—v8, v9, v10, and v11. The agreement includes not only long-term supply arrangements but also revenue commitments from Alphabet, providing strong certainty for Broadcom's AI business.

JPMorgan expects this means Broadcom's TPU-related revenue will maintain year-on-year growth through 2031. Within the current AI supply chain, few companies have secured long-term purchase commitments from major LLM developers, and Alphabet's continued investment undoubtedly opens a clearer growth path for Broadcom in the coming years.

Internal Team Poses Limited Near-Term Threat

Over the past year, Alphabet has strengthened its internal chip team and involved more suppliers in TPU R&D, a move viewed by many investors as the biggest future risk to Broadcom. However, JPMorgan believes this concern is significantly overstated.

The report notes that Alphabet's internal team is still optimizing the existing TPU v8t (Zebrafish) project, while the TPU v8i (Sunfish) handled by Broadcom completed certification in mid-2025 and is about to enter mass production, indicating a technical gap of at least 18 months in advanced AI chip design.

The report emphasizes that ASIC competition is far more than a contest of single technical metrics; it involves a multi-dimensional game encompassing compute architecture, network design, storage systems, advanced packaging, and IP accumulation—areas where Broadcom has built core barriers through decades of sustained investment. The report specifically points out that over the past 12 years, Broadcom has assisted Alphabet in completing 14 of its most advanced chip designs, experience and execution capabilities that cannot be replicated in the short term.

Strong AI Order Book

Broadcom's customer portfolio advantage in the AI ASIC market is also significant.

Currently, Broadcom holds the world's largest pipeline of AI ASIC projects, with customers covering leading AI players like Alphabet, Anthropic, OpenAI, and Meta. The company is also involved in SoftBank/Arm's XPU project, SambaNova's RDU project, and an Apple AI CPU project.

As more large AI model companies seek to move away from reliance on general-purpose GPUs toward custom ASICs, Broadcom is becoming one of the primary beneficiaries of this trend. Based on this, JPMorgan projects Broadcom's AI business revenue will grow 2 to 2.5 times year-over-year by 2027 and double again in 2028.

Core Strengths Potentially Underappreciated

The current market discussion focuses too heavily on whether Alphabet will bolster its internal chip team, overlooking Broadcom's true competitive advantages.

Whether in advanced chip design capability, packaging technology, IP accumulation, or mass production execution experience, Broadcom maintains a clear leading position. With the commencement of operations at its Singapore advanced substrate factory and the release of advanced packaging capacity in 2028, the company's lead in the AI ASIC market could even expand in the coming years.

From JPMorgan's perspective, the market sees Alphabet trying to reduce its dependence on Broadcom, but misses that Alphabet's next four generations of TPUs are already deeply tied to Broadcom. In the race for custom chips in the AI era, Broadcom remains one of the most difficult players to replace.