**Latest Gold Market Trend Analysis:**
October 2nd Gold Market Analysis: During Thursday's Asian morning session, spot gold traded near $3,860 per ounce. Gold prices reached a new historical high of $3,895.28 per ounce on Wednesday, supported by a weaker US dollar and safe-haven demand triggered by concerns over a US government shutdown, while weak employment data strengthened market expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts this month. During Wednesday's (October 1st) European session, the US Dollar Index fell as much as 33 points due to disappointing US ADP private payroll data, with declines reaching -0.33% before recovering slightly to trade around 97.54, down 0.27%. The Automatic Data Processing (ADP) report released Wednesday showed US private sector employment decreased by 32,000 in September, significantly below the expected increase of 50,000. Additionally, the August private sector employment figure was revised down to a decrease of 3,000 (from an initial reading of +54,000), representing quite alarming data that typically would severely impact the US Dollar Index.
**Gold Technical Analysis:** From current market perspective, gold continues to maintain a bullish uptrend, and we should not attempt to predict the top. The trading principle focuses primarily on buying dips. So far this week, Monday's and Tuesday's price action has replicated last week's pattern - Monday saw a one-sided rally to new highs, Tuesday continued higher before experiencing a significant pullback. However, under the influence of the prevailing trend, as long as bears don't capitulate, bulls won't stop. Gold has once again generated substantial upside momentum, closing near the 3860 high. Therefore, today's strategy remains clear: continue maintaining the bullish trend and wait for pullbacks to buy.
From a technical perspective, the daily timeframe shows gradual advancement above the unidirectional moving average. As long as there's no break below the unidirectional moving average support, there's no possibility of a strong-to-weak reversal. Support levels below are sequentially at the 5-day and 10-day moving averages at 3810 and 3750. Therefore, strength begets strength - we're not afraid of bullish advances, only concerned about downside breaks. The H4 timeframe, during Tuesday's pullback process, didn't break below the Bollinger middle band support. One large bullish candle engulfed the previous consecutive positive candles, but under the trend influence, consecutive bullish candles again engulfed the large bearish one. While the market may experience pullbacks, bullish strength is undeniable, with upside momentum appearing flawless. Therefore, today we should maintain the bullish trend outlook. Key support to watch below is the 4-hour 10-period moving average at 3855. Intraday strategy involves waiting for adjustments to support levels before buying, with US session maintaining the overall bullish bias for continued buying on dips. Overall, today's gold short-term strategy suggests primarily buying on pullbacks, with limited counter-trend selling on rebounds. Key resistance above focuses on 3885-3895, while key support below centers on 3845-3835.
**Latest Crude Oil Market Trend Analysis:**
**Crude Oil Fundamental Analysis:** Thursday (Beijing time October 2nd) Asian morning session, US crude oil traded near $61.70 per barrel. Oil prices declined Wednesday, touching 16-week lows as US government shutdown concerns intensified worries about the global economy, while traders anticipate increased oil supply as OPEC+ plans to boost production next month. The CEO of Diamondback Energy, one of America's largest oil producers, stated Wednesday that US oil production growth would stagnate if prices remain around $60 per barrel, as profitable drilling decreases at this level. In other energy markets, US gasoline futures closed at nearly one-year lows.
**Crude Oil Technical Analysis:** From the daily chart perspective, oil prices faced resistance at the upper boundary of the range, with candlesticks forming two consecutive large bearish bars falling back toward the lower boundary. Crude oil's medium-term objective trend remains range-bound, with the range spanning 66.00-60.80. MACD indicators show fast and slow lines preparing to cross above the zero line, with bearish momentum dominant. Medium-term crude oil movement is expected to continue range-bound consolidation. Short-term (1H) movement continues the primary downward trend, though downside space is limited and gradually weakening. Oil prices remain suppressed by the moving average system, with short-term objective trend direction unchanged to the downside. Morning trading shows oil prices in weak consolidation at low levels, with bearish momentum still dominant, expecting intraday crude oil movement to primarily feature weak low-level consolidation. Overall, today's crude oil strategy suggests primarily selling on rallies, with limited buying on dips. Key resistance above focuses on 63.0-64.0, while key support below centers on 61.0-60.0.