Abstract

Nuvation Bio, Inc. will report quarterly results on March 02, 2026 after-market; this preview reviews recent financial performance, the company’s projections for revenue, EBIT, EPS, margins, and key business segments, and weighs institutional commentary alongside expected operating drivers and risks over the next quarter.

Market Forecast

Nuvation Bio, Inc. guides this quarter’s revenue to approximately $37.33 million, with forecast EBIT at -$31.43 million and EPS at -$0.089; year-over-year forecasts indicate EPS improving by 35.25% and EBIT improving by 36.22%, while the revenue year-over-year forecast is cited at 0%. No formal gross profit margin or net profit margin forecast was disclosed; however, management’s forecast implies narrower operating loss versus the comparable period and a modest EPS improvement on a year-over-year basis.

Within the main business, last quarter’s revenue reflected $7.72 million from Products and $5.40 million from Collaboration and License Agreements, together composing the core revenue streams expected to drive near-term results; the outlook hinges on timing of collaboration revenue recognition and product revenue continuity. The most promising segment appears to be Products with $7.72 million in last quarter’s revenue, supported by overall revenue year-over-year growth of 1704.68% for the previous quarter, indicating substantial uplift against the comparable period.

Last Quarter Review

Nuvation Bio, Inc. posted last quarter revenue of $13.12 million, gross profit margin of 74.47%, GAAP net profit attributable to the parent company of -$55.79 million, net profit margin not disclosed, and adjusted EPS of -$0.16; year-over-year, total revenue grew by 1704.68% while adjusted EPS moved by -6.67%.

A notable financial highlight was a significant top-line beat versus expectations, with revenue exceeding the consensus by $6.51 million and a narrower-than-expected loss on EPS. From a business perspective, revenue was split between $7.72 million from Products and $5.40 million from Collaboration and License Agreements; segment-level year-over-year growth was not disclosed, though total revenue expansion was pronounced relative to the comparable period.

Current Quarter Outlook

Main Business Trajectory

Nuvation Bio, Inc.’s main business continues to derive revenue from Products and Collaboration and License Agreements, which together have shown a step-change in recent reported results. With the company guiding to $37.33 million in revenue this quarter, the forward profile suggests continuity in revenue recognition from agreements and sales-related activity, with EBIT projected at -$31.43 million and EPS at -$0.089. The year-over-year forecasts for EBIT and EPS point to meaningful improvement, at 36.22% and 35.25%, respectively, which would be consistent with tighter operating discipline or higher gross contribution per dollar of recognized revenue.

Gross profit margin was 74.47% last quarter, indicating a favorable cost structure for recognized revenue; while no explicit margin forecast was provided, a similar mix of collaboration and product revenue would typically support higher gross margins than service-heavy or low-margin product sales. The quarter’s outcome will likely depend on the cadence of revenue recognition within collaboration arrangements and the sustainability of recent product revenue trends. In practical terms, predictable revenue timing in agreements and steady product shipments are central to hitting the guided top line, while margin maintenance could allow EPS to track toward the guided improvement.

The sequential earnings narrative will also be influenced by operating expenses. Last quarter’s revenue beat contrasted with a sizable GAAP loss, and the current forecast for EBIT still signals operating losses even as the year-over-year trajectory improves. A narrower operating loss relative to the comparable period, as implied by this quarter’s EBIT and EPS guidance, would support the view that expense control and revenue quality are improving.

Segment With Largest Growth Potential

Products, at $7.72 million last quarter, was the single largest revenue contributor among the company’s segments and appears to carry the most immediate potential to expand contribution in the upcoming results window. The scale of product revenue is important because it directly influences gross margin outcomes; last quarter’s 74.47% gross profit margin suggests the product mix can sustain healthy margin levels, assuming pricing and cost dynamics remain stable. In addition, higher product revenue volumes can reduce unit costs through fixed cost absorption, supporting margin stability.

Collaboration and License Agreements contributed $5.40 million last quarter and can be an important lever for quarter-to-quarter top-line variability, given the timing of milestones and revenue recognition specifics. If collaboration economics align with reported revenue guidance, this segment can also act as a stabilizer for total revenue while providing non-dilutive funding flow to offset operating costs. However, the predictability of collaboration revenue depends on contractual milestones; thus, even though Products is identified as the most immediately promising segment for expansion, collaboration revenue remains a critical complementary driver.

Given the company’s guidance for this quarter, a balanced contribution from Products and collaboration revenue would likely underpin the guided $37.33 million top line. The absence of segment-level forecast detail means the market will infer segment momentum from total revenue and margin results; stronger-than-expected product revenue and resilient margin metrics would be a supportive signal for improving operating leverage.

Key Stock Price Drivers This Quarter

Share performance around the print will be influenced by the magnitude and composition of revenue versus the guided $37.33 million, the quality of margin outcomes, and how EPS compares with the -$0.089 guidance. A result that combines revenue in-line or ahead of guidance with maintained or improved gross margins would reinforce the year-over-year improvement narrative in EBIT and EPS. Conversely, if revenue recognition unexpectedly skews away from higher-margin components, EPS could miss the guided improvement despite top-line delivery.

Another key consideration is operating expense discipline relative to revenue growth. Last quarter’s GAAP net loss was -$55.79 million against $13.12 million revenue, underscoring the sensitivity of EPS to operating expense intensity. This quarter’s EBIT forecast at -$31.43 million indicates a path toward improved operating performance year-over-year; tighter expense control alongside revenue composition favoring higher-margin streams would be constructive for EPS delivery.

Finally, the stock may react to any commentary on revenue visibility, collaboration milestone timing, and product revenue continuity in the outlook portion of the release. Clear guidance or reaffirmation of revenue cadence for upcoming periods would reduce variability in forward expectations. If management articulates confidence in sustained revenue mix supporting margin levels similar to last quarter’s 74.47%, the market could view the improved EPS and EBIT forecasts as more durable.

Analyst Opinions

The institutional view skews bullish over the reviewed period, with a 100% bullish ratio based on collected items within the January 01, 2026 to February 23, 2026 window. JonesTrading maintained a Buy rating on Nuvation Bio, Inc., including a $12.00 price target, signaling positive conviction ahead of the release window. While broader sell-side consensus metrics were not available within the specified timeframe, the cited bullish stance aligns with the company’s guidance for EPS and EBIT improvement year-over-year.

The JonesTrading perspective appears supportive of the narrative that EPS and EBIT are on a trajectory of improvement relative to the comparable quarter, with revenue guidance set at $37.33 million. In this context, a print that meets or exceeds the guided EPS of -$0.089 and EBIT of -$31.43 million would be consistent with the bullish posture. The durability of margin performance will be a focal point; if last quarter’s 74.47% gross profit margin proves a reasonable proxy for this quarter’s mix, the path to year-over-year improvement is clearer.

From the standpoint of the bull case, analysts expecting improved operating metrics are likely to emphasize revenue quality and neutral-to-positive operating expense trends. The large year-over-year increase in last quarter’s revenue and the narrower guided operating loss are both supportive datapoints. The breadth of revenue contribution between Products ($7.72 million last quarter) and Collaboration and License Agreements ($5.40 million last quarter) offers two avenues for performance to align with guidance, reducing reliance on any single revenue source. Market reaction will ultimately hinge on how these elements translate into reported figures and whether management’s commentary conveys confidence about the continuity of revenue and the path to improved EPS.

In summary, institutional commentary in the reviewed period is dominated by bullish views, centering on the potential for year-over-year improvement in earnings metrics and adequate delivery against top-line guidance. A balanced revenue mix and sustained margin quality would validate these expectations; investors will be watching the interplay between revenue composition, margin outcomes, and operating expense discipline, as these factors will shape EPS performance and near-term sentiment around Nuvation Bio, Inc. following the March 02, 2026 after-market release.