UBS released a research report estimating that AIA's (01299) first-half operating profit per share will increase 10% year-on-year, with after-tax operating profit expected to grow 5%. The interim dividend is projected to rise 9% to HK$0.48 per share, though the bank believes there will be no immediate updates to the share repurchase program.
The bank noted that Du Jiaqi will assume the role of new chairman on October 1st, and major strategic adjustments are expected to become clearer after his appointment. UBS maintains its target price of HK$88 with a "Buy" rating.
UBS forecasts that AIA's first-half Value of New Business (VNB) will grow 16% and 15% year-on-year based on Actual Exchange Rate (AER) and Constant Exchange Rate (CER) respectively. The bank estimates that second-quarter growth will accelerate to 21% (AER) and 18% (CER), compared to 13% in the first quarter, primarily driven by strong business performance in Hong Kong and China markets.
Specifically, Hong Kong's CER-based VNB growth rate is expected to increase from 16% in the first quarter to 28%. Excluding the impact of economic assumption changes, China market VNB is projected to grow 12%.
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