Abstract

Graco will report fiscal first-quarter 2026 results on April 22, 2026 Post Market; investors are watching revenue growth near the mid‑single digits with stable margins and EPS progress from pricing discipline and product mix.

Market Forecast

Consensus points to fiscal Q1 revenue of 560.46 million US dollars, up 6.19% year over year, EBIT of 154.47 million US dollars, up 7.53%, and EPS of 0.74, up 9.41%. Margin expectations imply continued pricing and mix resilience, with EBIT expanding faster than sales and EPS growth outpacing revenue.

By segment, the company’s prior disclosures show Contractors as the largest revenue stream, followed by Industrial and the nascent expansion markets; management focus remains on mix and price carryover. The segment with the strongest multi‑year potential remains the Industrial franchise given global process and finishing demand and the company’s installed base leverage; revenue last reported was 996.81 million US dollars.

Last Quarter Review

In the previous quarter, Graco delivered revenue of 593.16 million US dollars (up 8.11% YoY), a gross profit margin of 51.71%, GAAP net profit attributable to shareholders of 132.00 million US dollars, a net profit margin of 22.34%, and adjusted EPS of 0.77 (up 20.31% YoY).

Operating leverage from price and productivity supported margin expansion and earnings quality. Main businesses were led by Contractors at 1.07 billion US dollars, Industrial at 996.81 million US dollars, and Expansion Markets at 167.91 million US dollars in the last disclosed period.

Current Quarter Outlook

Main business trajectory

The Contractor business remains central to earnings durability as distributors work through normalized channel inventories and demand benefits from steady U.S. nonresidential retrofit and maintenance spend. Price carryover from 2025 actions and disciplined discounting should preserve gross margin in the low‑50% range even with modest mix shifts. Watch order rates from pros and rental channels; consistent weekly POS trends would support the revenue target and limit the risk of deleverage.

Most promising growth platform

Industrial platforms centered on process, finishing, and lubrication are positioned to outgrow corporate averages given a backlog of maintenance and upgrades across manufacturing end markets in North America and Europe. The business benefits from an installed base with high aftermarket attachment, sustaining margin accretion even if large projects are uneven. International mix and a richer blend of high‑spec equipment could drive EBIT growth ahead of sales, aligning with the forecasted EBIT increase of 7.53% against 6.19% revenue growth.

Key stock price swing factors this quarter

Pricing resilience and mix will be the primary margin swing factors; a stable low‑50% gross margin would validate the EPS trajectory near 0.74. Order cadence in Contractor paint sprayers and Industrial finishing systems will signal demand health into Q2, while any inventory recalibration by distributors could temporarily weigh on shipments. FX is a secondary variable; modest dollar stability would keep translation headwinds manageable for reported revenue growth near the 6% mark.

Analyst Opinions

Across recent commentary, the majority view is bullish, citing steady mid‑single‑digit revenue growth with incremental margin expansion and EPS leverage. Analysts highlight a constructive setup into April 22, 2026, expecting the company to meet or modestly exceed its guidance framework driven by price and productivity. Several institutions underscore the strength of recurring aftermarket demand in Industrial, which supports above‑sales EBIT growth and cushions variability in project timing. Overall, the prevailing stance anticipates delivery in line with the revenue estimate of 560.46 million US dollars and EPS around 0.74, with upside risk if volumes modestly outpace plan.