On Tuesday, February 25th, the analysis suggested that escalating tensions in the Middle East and a sharply increased risk of military conflict between the US and Iran had rapidly fueled market risk aversion. This safe-haven buying supported continued gains in gold, pushing it to a fresh monthly high. The recommended strategy was to watch for support levels at $5200 and $5176, followed by $5120, while resistance was anticipated near $5280 and $5300, with a further level at $5380.
Subsequent price action saw gold extend its rally during the Asian session, reaching a new high for February at $5249 before encountering resistance. Midway through the Asian session, the price experienced a sharp decline, plunging nearly $80 to find support around $5145. A rebound to $5191 met selling pressure. After the US market opened, gold underwent another rapid sell-off, dropping nearly $60 to stabilize near $5092, before a final rebound attempt was capped around $5173 before the close. Overall, the failure to sustain higher levels triggered a corrective phase, with prices consolidating at elevated levels.
According to a Wolfinance star analyst, gold's failure after hitting a new February high on Tuesday led to a retreat that erased Monday's gains, ending a four-day winning streak. This was influenced by several factors: the substantial short-term advance prompted some investors to lock in profits, increasing selling pressure and triggering a technical correction; following the Supreme Court's rejection of blanket tariffs, the Trump administration quickly announced an interim 10% tariff surcharge, temporarily reducing extreme policy uncertainty and slightly dampening safe-haven demand; earlier speculation about a potential US military strike on Iran on the 23rd or 24th did not materialize, leading markets to anticipate US-Iran negotiations on the 26th, which also partially reduced safe-haven buying. Looking ahead, despite the short-term setback, the overall bullish trend remains intact. Supported by expectations for interest rate cuts, ongoing geopolitical tensions, and central bank purchasing demand, the medium to long-term outlook for gold remains positive.
On the daily chart, gold's rejection at higher levels led to a pullback, with prices currently oscillating in a high range. Key support is observed at the 5-day moving average near $5090, which coincides with Tuesday's low. A break below this level could lead to further short-term pressure, with the next significant support around the middle Bollinger Band near $5020. Immediate resistance is seen at the psychological $5200 level, followed by the weekly Bollinger Band upper rail near $5260, which capped the advance on Tuesday. While the 5-day MA shows a slight golden cross and the MACD indicates a mild bullish crossover, the KDJ and RSI indicators are turning down from golden crosses, suggesting a need for consolidation after the recent sustained advance.
Intraday outlook: After a rapid ascent that built significant gains, gold is undergoing a corrective phase influenced by profit-taking. However, the medium to long-term uptrend remains supported by expectations for monetary easing, geopolitical risks, and central bank demand. A range-trading approach is recommended, with support monitored at $5090, then $5020. If the price stabilizes under pressure, watch the strength of any rebound. Resistance is eyed at $5200, then $5260. A renewed push higher would demonstrate bullish resilience, indicating potential for continued upward movement.