Reverse Rally Surges! Non-Ferrous Metals Leading ETF Soars 4.2% Against Market Trend to New High! Is China's Rare Earth Sector Entering a Renaissance? Gold Price Targets $4,100!

Deep News
Oct 13

On the afternoon of October 13th, the non-ferrous metals sector led the market, attracting over 17.5 billion yuan in major capital inflows! Northern Rare Earth topped the A-share capital attraction rankings. Among popular ETFs, the Non-Ferrous Metals Leading ETF (159876), which encompasses industry leaders across the non-ferrous metals sector, saw its intraday price surge over 4.2% at one point, closing up 3.45%. This reversed all losses from the previous trading session and set a new listing high! The full-day trading volume reached 125 million yuan, demonstrating active trading!

Notably, capital actively rushed in! The Non-Ferrous Metals Leading ETF (159876) recorded net subscriptions of 33 million shares throughout the day! Shenzhen Stock Exchange data shows the ETF attracted 258 million yuan over the past 3 days, and extending the timeframe, accumulated 321 million yuan in inflows over the past 20 days. Data indicates that as of October 10th, the Non-Ferrous Metals Leading ETF (159876) reached a latest scale of 584 million yuan, a historical high, currently ranking as the largest ETF among three products tracking the same underlying index.

Five constituent stocks hit strong daily limits! Breaking down by segments, rare earth leaders Northern Rare Earth and China Rare Earth Resources And Technology Co.,Ltd. hit daily limits, while Shenghe Resources surged over 8%; gold leader Western Gold hit the daily limit, with Zhongjin Gold rising over 8%; copper industry leader Baiyin Nonferrous hit the daily limit, and lithium industry leader Ganfeng Lithium surged over 9%.

On the news front, on October 10th, two rare earth giants Northern Rare Earth and Baotou Steel announced price increases. On the same day, the Ministry of Commerce issued new regulations implementing export controls on relevant overseas rare earth items and rare earth-related technologies.

CITIC Securities noted that the Ministry of Commerce's new regulations implement export controls on rare earth-related items, technologies, equipment, and raw auxiliary materials, expanding the control scope from domestic to overseas, adding export controls on rare earth secondary resource recycling and utilization-related technologies and production line assembly, debugging, and maintenance technologies. This basically covers the entire rare earth industry chain and involves semiconductor and artificial intelligence sectors for the first time, potentially further strengthening rare earth supply rigidity. On the demand side, the traditional rare earth peak season is approaching, the supply-demand pattern may continue improving, rare earth prices may remain stable with upward momentum, and strategic allocation value in the rare earth industry chain continues to be recommended.

Shenwan Hongyuan Securities pointed out that the non-ferrous metals industry maintains high prosperity levels. Precious metals are affected by Federal Reserve rate cuts, geopolitical conflicts, and tariff policies, with international gold prices breaking through the $4,000 threshold; for industrial metals, copper and aluminum prices continue rising due to supply constraints from Indonesian mine shutdowns and the continued weak dollar environment; rare earth prices remain strong due to tightened export control policies. The non-ferrous metals mining and smelting processing industries show both volume and price increases, maintaining high profit growth rates.

Fundamentally, according to the 2025 interim reports, among the 60 constituent stocks of the CSI Non-Ferrous Metals Index, 55 stocks achieved profitability in the first half, accounting for over 91%. From the perspective of year-over-year growth in net profit attributable to parent company, 10 stocks achieved doubling, with Northern Rare Earth's net profit surging 1,951% leading the pack, while Guocheng Mining's net profit attributable to parent company also surged 1,111%.

Chart: Non-Ferrous Metals Leading ETF 2025 Interim Report - Constituent stocks with net profit attributable to parent company year-over-year growth exceeding 100%

Industry insiders believe that non-ferrous metals, as globally-priced commodities, are the main force in this round of commodity bull market. On one hand, driven by medium-to-long-term capital expenditure cycles, non-ferrous metals have entered a major price upward cycle of medium-to-long-term supply tightness; on the other hand, the continued upward trend in global manufacturing investment cycles, combined with strategic metal resource stockpiling demand under deglobalization, will continuously boost demand for non-ferrous metals; currently overlaid with expectations of domestic macroeconomic bottoming and recovery, the logic is further strengthened. Under multiple overlapping logics, non-ferrous metals may become core varieties in this round of slow bull market. Looking ahead one to two years, industrial non-ferrous metals, minor metals, and gold are favored first.

【The "Metal Heart" of Future Industries, the "Golden Blood" of Modern Industry】

Different non-ferrous metals have inconsistent prosperity levels, rhythms, and driving points, making differentiation inevitable. If bullish on the non-ferrous metals sector, a relatively relaxed approach is to better capture the entire sector's beta performance through comprehensive coverage. The Non-Ferrous Metals Leading ETF (159876), which encompasses non-ferrous metals industry leaders, and its feeder funds (Class A: 017140, Class C: 017141) passively track the CSI Non-Ferrous Metals Index. Copper, gold, aluminum, rare earth, and lithium industry weights account for 27.6%, 14.5%, 13.1%, 10.4%, and 8.4% respectively. Compared to investing in a single metal industry, this can diversify risks and is suitable as part of an investment portfolio allocation.

Risk Warning: The Non-Ferrous Metals Leading ETF and its feeder funds passively track the CSI Non-Ferrous Metals Index. The index base date is December 31, 2013, published on July 13, 2015. The index's returns for the past 5 complete years were: 2020: 35.84%; 2021: 35.89%; 2022: -19.22%; 2023: -10.43%; 2024: 2.96%. Index constituent composition is adjusted timely according to index compilation rules, and backtested historical performance does not predict future index performance. Individual stocks mentioned in this article are for display purposes only. Stock descriptions do not constitute any form of investment advice, nor represent holding information or trading movements of any fund under the manager. The fund manager assesses this fund's risk level as R3-Medium Risk, suitable for balanced (C3) and above investors. Appropriateness matching opinions should be based on sales institutions. Any information appearing in this article (including but not limited to individual stocks, comments, predictions, charts, indicators, theories, any form of expression, etc.) is for reference only. Investors must be responsible for any autonomous investment decisions. Additionally, any views, analyses, and predictions in this article do not constitute investment advice to readers in any form, nor bear any responsibility for direct or indirect losses caused by using this article's content. Fund investment carries risks. Past performance of funds does not represent future performance. Performance of other funds managed by the fund manager does not guarantee fund performance. Fund investment requires caution.

MACD golden cross signal formation, these stocks show good upward momentum!

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

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