Abstract

Hilton will release its quarterly results on February 11, 2026 Pre-Market.

Market Forecast

Consensus compiled from recent indicators points to Hilton’s current-quarter revenue of $2.99 billion, gross profit margin of 78.41%, net profit margin of 32.74%, and adjusted EPS of $2.02, reflecting year-over-year changes of 7.78% for revenue and 20.10% for EPS. Hilton’s main business is expected to be supported by cost reimbursements and franchise fees, with stable management fees indicating steady unit growth and resilient RevPAR trends. The most promising segment is franchise and licensing, with estimated revenue of $0.74 billion and favorable year-over-year momentum aligned with unit expansion and international pipeline conversion.

Last Quarter Review

Hilton’s previous quarter delivered revenue of $3.12 billion, a gross profit margin of 78.41%, GAAP net profit attributable to the parent company of $0.42 billion, a net profit margin of 32.74%, and adjusted EPS of $2.11, with year-over-year changes of 8.83% for revenue and 9.90% for EPS. A notable highlight was EBIT of $0.88 billion, surpassing estimates and indicating solid operating leverage despite mixed regional leisure trends. Main business performance was led by cost reimbursements at $1.84 billion and franchise and licensing fees at $0.74 billion, with ownership contributing $0.32 billion, reflecting continued growth and stable fee streams.

Current Quarter Outlook (with major analytical insights)

Main Business Drivers: Cost Reimbursements and Fee-Based Model

Hilton’s fee-based model remains central to earnings resilience, with cost reimbursements and franchise fees representing the largest share of revenue. Cost reimbursements typically flow through with limited margin impact but scale with systemwide activity, reinforcing topline consistency when corporate travel and group bookings improve. Franchise and licensing fees are more accretive to margin and benefit from net unit growth, pipeline conversion, and RevPAR mix improvements in urban and group-heavy markets. Management fees, including base and incentive components, capture operating upside when property-level profitability improves, which is consistent with ongoing recovery in group demand and steady corporate transient trends. This quarter, macro signals suggest stable U.S. RevPAR, with a more pronounced lift in international markets due to reopened corridors and currency normalization, supporting fee inflows and mitigating rate volatility.

Most Promising Segment: Franchise and Licensing Expansion

Franchise and licensing is positioned to outgrow the consolidated average as Hilton continues to expand midscale and premium select-service flags, particularly in North America and Asia. New brand launches and conversions are accelerating pipeline realization, which historically translate into fee growth that outpaces room additions due to mix upgrades and higher effective royalty rates. The estimated $0.74 billion revenue for this segment, trending upward year over year, reflects both development momentum and improved property-level performance. International openings and conversions should further enrich the portfolio, helping offset potential softness in certain U.S. leisure destinations. These dynamics add both breadth and quality to fee streams and are likely to underpin margin stability even if cost reimbursements fluctuate with operating expenses.

Stock Price Sensitivities This Quarter

Hilton’s stock reaction will hinge on RevPAR growth vs. guidance, net unit growth, and capital return execution. An upside surprise in RevPAR, particularly in urban and group segments, would feed through management and incentive fees and bolster EBIT beyond the forecast $0.81 billion. Net unit growth and pipeline conversion metrics are watched closely as they validate development momentum and longer-term fee compounding, especially with midscale brand scaling. Share repurchases remain a key element of Hilton’s equity story; stronger-than-expected buyback activity could elevate adjusted EPS above the $2.02 estimate, while any moderation might temper sentiment. Currency effects and regional leisure normalization are swing factors; if FX turns supportive and Asia-Pacific demand strengthens, fee-based lines would likely outperform, whereas a sharper leisure normalization in the U.S. could weigh on near-term rate growth and mix.

Analyst Opinions

Recent institutional commentary skews constructive on Hilton’s setup for the quarter, with a majority of previews emphasizing fee-based durability, pipeline strength, and disciplined capital returns. Well-followed analysts highlight the balance of resilient franchise fees and improving group bookings as a foundation for EBIT near $0.81 billion and adjusted EPS around $2.02. The bullish camp expects RevPAR to grind higher on stable corporate travel and consistent group calendars, while franchise development adds visibility to future fee expansion. These views coalesce around a positive outlook that prioritizes Hilton’s asset-light model and buyback cadence as catalysts for sustaining earnings growth through the fiscal year, with near-term upside tied to incremental beats in management and incentive fees.