From January 29th to 30th, the issuance documents for eight commercial real estate REITs were intensively posted online, with the combined valuation of the related projects reaching 32.1 billion yuan and an expected fundraising scale of 31.5 billion yuan. Since the official launch of commercial real estate REITs, market issuance and approval efficiency has significantly improved, and the securitization process for high-quality assets has continuously accelerated. This has not only become a crucial tool for real estate companies to optimize their asset-liability structure and solidify their financial foundation but has also emerged as another key force driving the stabilization and recovery of the real estate sector.
Since 2026, buoyed by continuously intensifying policies and coordinated efforts from both supply and demand, a sense of recovery has been steadily spreading through the real estate market. On the demand side, factors such as historically low mortgage rates for first-home purchases, the extension of the individual income tax refund policy for home replacements, and increases in provident fund loan quotas coupled with extended terms have effectively reduced the cost of home ownership. This has gradually dissipated potential homebuyers' wait-and-see attitude, leading to a steady increase in market transaction activity. On the supply side, substantial progress has been made in debt restructuring for developers, the pace of revitalizing high-quality assets has quickened, and these efforts, combined with the advancement of the pre-sold housing system and strengthened supervision of presale funds, have led to a continuous mitigation of industry risks and a constant optimization of the market supply structure.
Experts interviewed stated that the real estate industry is currently in a critical period of recovery following a deep adjustment. As policy dividends continue to be released and market clearing accelerates, the industry is steadily progressing towards high-quality development, with market confidence being gradually restored.
The policy package is precisely targeted, and the market warmth is gradually intensifying, forming the most distinct backdrop for the real estate industry in 2026. The latest "China Real Estate Index System 100-City Price Index Report (January 2026)" released by the China Index Academy shows that, according to survey data from the index system on new and second-hand residential sales markets in 100 cities and rental markets in 50 cities, the average price of second-hand homes in the 100 cities was 12,905 yuan per square meter in January, a month-on-month decrease of 0.85%, with the decline narrowing by 0.12 percentage points from the previous month. Regarding new homes, the launch of high-end improvement projects in cities like Chengdu, Shanghai, and Hangzhou drove a structural month-on-month increase in new home prices across the 100 cities. The average price of new homes reached 17,114 yuan per square meter, up 0.18% month-on-month and 2.52% year-on-year.
The current recovery in the real estate market represents a healthy restoration under precise policy regulation. Central and local governments are working in concert, deploying a targeted policy package ranging from tax reductions and fee cuts to credit easing and subsidy support. On one hand, the individual income tax refund policy for home replacements has been extended until the end of 2027, and the value-added tax rate for the sale of homes owned for less than two years has been reduced from 5% to 3%, significantly lowering transaction costs and stimulating activity in the secondary market and demand for improved housing. On the other hand, many localities have increased provident fund loan quotas for groups such as multi-child families and military veterans, providing targeted support for rigid demand.
While activating demand, policies aimed at relieving difficulties and promoting transformation on the supply side are also being implemented, fostering a positive interaction between supply and demand in the real estate market. For instance, various regions are promoting the acquisition of existing commercial housing by local state-owned enterprises for use as affordable housing, which both opens up channels for inventory reduction and improves the multi-tiered housing supply system.
Simultaneously, financial resources are increasingly倾斜 towards high-quality developers and projects. The gradual implementation of "good house" construction standards and the deepening promotion of urban renewal are further driving the industry's transition from "large-scale incremental expansion" to "quality and efficiency improvements in existing stock," laying a solid foundation for the market's long-term healthy development.
Liu Shui, Director of Enterprise Research at the China Index Academy, stated that the policy level has sent a clear signal of "stabilizing expectations," and several specific measures have already been implemented at the beginning of the year, aiming to boost market confidence through coordinated efforts on both the demand and financing fronts. Overall, real estate policy has entered a new stage focused on "stabilizing expectations and shortening the adjustment period."
Looking ahead, Liu Shui indicated that as premium land plots sold in core cities in 2025 gradually enter the market, and coupled with some developers expected to increase promotional efforts before the Spring Festival to attract customers in advance, market demand is expected to be gradually released in March this year. A "small sunny spring" rally in core cities is still something to look forward to.
While policies are activating market demand, new growth drivers are accelerating their accumulation, laying a solid foundation for the healthy development of the real estate industry.
From the perspective of developers' asset structures, a recovery trend in operating assets has already emerged, becoming a key tool for improving their fundamental operating conditions. On the liability side, the trend of optimizing debt structures and alleviating repayment pressures for developers continues to manifest. Against the backdrop of ongoing policy efforts to expand and enhance the "three arrows" of developer financing and the continuous improvement of debt extension and restructuring mechanisms, developers' financing channels are gradually becoming smoother, financing costs are steadily declining, and the coverage capacity of operating cash flow for debt is continuously increasing.
More importantly, the construction of "good houses" has become an industry consensus, with high-quality properties meeting relevant standards activating the release of demand for housing improvement. Meanwhile, the advancement of the pre-sold housing system and strengthened supervision of presale funds have effectively prevented delivery risks, rebuilt the industry's trust system, and made industry development more robust.
CITIC Securities stated that as policies vigorously push for the stabilization and recovery of residential prices, coupled with the appreciation of commercial real estate assets, the credit risk of entities within the real estate sector has begun to recede.
Shenwan Hongyuan noted that considering the deep clearing on the supply side of real estate and the significant optimization of the industry landscape, it is expected that the profit recovery of high-quality developers will occur earlier and be more resilient.
From policy impetus to market warming, and from the transformation of growth drivers to risk resolution, the real estate industry is steadily progressing towards healthy development. Lin Xianping, Associate Professor at Zhejiang University City College, stated that the subsequent policy environment is expected to remain accommodative, with room for further adjustments in areas such as home purchase eligibility and credit support in first-tier cities, while the industry's own transformation and upgrading will continue to deepen. Under the dual effects of policy and market forces, the recovery momentum of the real estate market will continue to accumulate, the foundation for the industry's healthy development will become more solid, ultimately achieving a smooth transition from rapid growth to high-quality development.