Abstract

Humana will report fourth-quarter results on February 11, 2026, Pre-Market.

Market Forecast

Consensus expectations for Humana’s current quarter imply total revenue of $32.08 billion, a year-over-year increase of 11.25%, while the company-level forecast set points to negative EBIT of $0.40 billion and an EPS of -$4.01, both expected to decline year over year. The last quarter’s gross profit margin was 14.27%, and the net profit margin was 0.60%; the forecast does not provide a gross margin or net margin projection, so these are referenced from the last reported quarter. Humana’s main business remains revenue from external customers, supported by CenterWell’s diversified services and investment income outlook, with revenue expected to maintain high single- to low double-digit growth. The most promising segment is CenterWell, where the last quarter’s revenue reached $1.33 billion, with an accelerating pipeline of senior-focused care delivery and pharmacy services poised for structural growth.

Last Quarter Review

Humana’s previous quarter delivered revenue of $32.65 billion, a gross profit margin of 14.27%, GAAP net profit attributable to the parent of $1.95 billion, a net profit margin of 0.60%, and adjusted EPS of $3.24, with revenue growing 11.43% year over year and adjusted EPS declining 22.12% year over year. Quarter-on-quarter net profit fell by 64.22%, reflecting elevated medical cost pressure against a resilient top line. Main business highlights included $30.98 billion from external customers and $1.33 billion from CenterWell, demonstrating stable payor strengths and expanding healthcare services reach.

Current Quarter Outlook

Medicare Advantage and Core Insurance Operations

Humana’s core insurance operations, dominated by Medicare Advantage membership and premium revenue, will be the central driver of the quarter’s narrative. The company’s forecasted revenue trajectory of $32.08 billion implies continued beneficiary growth and rate capture, yet the simultaneous expectation for negative EBIT and EPS underscores acute claims intensity and medical cost ratios trending above long-term targets. Key moving parts include seasonally higher utilization patterns in the fourth quarter, risk-adjustment revenue timing, and ongoing normalization of care deferrals, which collectively can compress margins even with firm premiums. Investors will scrutinize unit cost trends for inpatient and outpatient services, pharmacy utilization, and the spread between premium yield and medical cost inflation; any early indication of stabilization in the medical loss ratio would materially influence sentiment. The quarter’s stock impact will hinge on whether management’s commentary frames cost pressures as transitory within updated 2026 MA rate filings and whether membership growth quality offsets margin compression.

CenterWell Care Delivery and Pharmacy Services

CenterWell represents Humana’s most promising growth platform, integrating primary care, home health, and pharmacy services tailored to seniors. The segment’s last quarter revenue of $1.33 billion provides a base from which management has been building scale through clinic expansion, care coordination, and value-based contracts. The outlook for the current quarter emphasizes throughput gains in new centers, improving panel density, and higher script volumes, which can deepen patient engagement and enhance outcomes. However, the consolidated expectation for negative EBIT at the company level suggests that even with CenterWell’s unit economics improving, the broader enterprise margin will be sensitive to medical cost trends on the insurance side. Visibility into CenterWell’s same-center revenue growth, patient retention, and pharmacy adherence metrics will be crucial for assessing the sustainability of its revenue growth and its potential to buffer insurance margin volatility. If CenterWell continues to accelerate, it can expand its contribution, create ancillary savings through coordinated care, and incrementally support margin recovery over the medium term.

Key Stock Price Drivers This Quarter

The most consequential factor for Humana’s stock is the trajectory of medical loss ratio and the realization of claims related to inpatient and outpatient care, particularly among higher-acuity cohorts. A second factor is membership mix evolution within Medicare Advantage, where risk scores and benefit design choices directly affect premium yield and the balance of care intensity. A third driver is capital deployment and balance sheet resilience, including any updated perspectives on share repurchases or investment portfolio returns, given the last quarter’s contribution from investment income. The intersection of these elements—claims cost stabilization, membership quality, and capital flexibility—will set the tone for earnings quality and the guidance corridor. Markets will weigh whether near-term margin pressure is addressed through pricing, benefit design adjustments, care management initiatives, and CenterWell’s integrated delivery gains.

Analyst Opinions

Across recent institutional and sell-side commentaries, views skew cautiously constructive, with bullish opinions modestly outweighing bearish ones. Analysts highlight continued top-line momentum driven by Medicare Advantage scale and a growing CenterWell contribution, while cautioning that elevated medical utilization could suppress margins and earnings in the near term. Several well-known institutions note that the quarter’s negative EBIT and EPS guidance serves to reset expectations and concentrate attention on cost management execution and 2026 rate adequacy. The prevailing perspective expects revenue resilience to persist and anticipates management to outline targeted actions in care management and benefit design to mitigate utilization pressures. In this context, the majority bullish stance is predicated on Humana’s membership base durability, diversified services growth, and capacity to translate operational adjustments into margin recovery over subsequent periods, even as the near-term earnings profile remains challenged.