The consensus is so strong that it feels unsettling. The Spring Festival is approaching, with A-shares suspended for over a week and the Hong Kong market also closed for several days. The critical question remains: should investors hold stocks or cash during the holiday? Currently, institutional views almost unanimously advocate holding stocks. Historical experience suggests a strong "calendar effect" around the Spring Festival, with statistics showing a over 70% probability of market gains post-holiday. Choosing to hold cash might mean chasing prices higher when reopening positions after the break. Short-term concerns appear limited. Both A-shares and Hong Kong stocks recently underwent corrections. A-shares faced significant selling pressure, with the Shanghai Composite nearly breaching the 4,000-point level. The Hang Seng Index, after hitting a new high in late January, also experienced a notable pullback, while the Hang Seng Tech Index entered a technical bear market. However, southbound funds aggressively bought the dip last week, stabilizing the short-term decline. A pre-holiday adjustment is preferable to a continuous rally right before the break. While institutions have voiced their stance, here’s a personal perspective. In my view, it’s still early to decide on a Monday. But holders of Hong Kong stocks—bullish or bearish—should finalize their decisions by this Friday. Since the start of 2026, the market’s most significant change has been heightened short-term volatility and rapidly shifting sentiment, driven by numerous uncertainties. Investors must monitor movements in gold and silver, the stance of the new Federal Reserve chair, and even fluctuations in Japanese and South Korean markets. Today, the Nikkei surged over 5% to a new record high, and the KOSPI jumped 4%, significantly boosting sentiment in A-shares and H-shares. These uncertainties make early decisions risky. For A-shares, the extended holiday suspension until February 24 means heavy positions could lead to anxiety if global markets adjust during the break. Hong Kong stocks appear to offer more flexibility, with trading available on Lunar New Year’s Eve and only a three-day closure from February 17 to 19, allowing more time for position adjustments. However, a crucial point must not be overlooked: the Stock Connect channels will be closed during the holiday. Investors using these channels to hold Hong Kong stocks will be unable to trade, effectively sharing the A-share market’s hiatus. Thus, this Friday is the final day to decide on stock or cash positions. Disclaimer: This content is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice. Verify information before use. All investments carry risks.