A blockbuster U.S. jobs report released Friday has smashed market expectations, igniting fresh worries that the Federal Reserve will maintain its restrictive policy stance and pushing the price of Bitcoin below the $80,000 threshold.
The surprisingly robust data immediately tightened expectations for macro liquidity, with the spillover hitting derivatives markets. The probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike in September surged from 52% to 59%.
The market reaction was swift across asset classes. Yields on 2-year U.S. Treasury notes jumped by 7.6 basis points, while 10-year and 30-year yields climbed 3.2 and 1 basis point, respectively. The U.S. dollar index (DXY) strengthened 0.3% to 99.3. Higher yields boost the appeal of dollar-denominated assets, while a firmer greenback raises financing costs for crypto, creating a dual drag on digital currencies.
The cross-asset fallout showed clear divergence. Gold, which pays no interest, took a hit from the shifting rate outlook, sliding between 1.7% and 2.2%. In equities, as of 8:33 a.m. Eastern Time, S&P 500 futures were down 0.22%, while Nasdaq 100 futures inched up 0.07%.
Wage data revealed a 0.3% monthly rise in average hourly earnings and a 3.1% annual gain, underscoring that sticky inflation remains the core variable driving uneven market moves.
Crude oil, however, carved its own path. Brent crude dipped only modestly around $95 following the jobs report, but weekly gains still topped 8% on supply concerns and heightened U.S.-Iran tensions.
It's worth noting that while the synchronized moves at 1:30 p.m. British Summer Time can be traced to the employment data, they don't explain all subsequent price action. Geopolitical factors are emerging as a new pricing anchor for markets.