Abstract

Royal Gold, Inc. will announce fiscal quarterly results on February 18, 2026, Post Market; preliminary indicators point to revenue of $393.67 million (up 111.45% year over year), adjusted EPS of $2.39 (up 61.18% year over year), and EBIT of $256.40 million (up 128.68% year over year), with investors focused on margin durability.

Market Forecast

The market’s current baseline for Royal Gold, Inc. points to revenue near $393.67 million, adjusted EPS around $2.39, and EBIT approximately $256.40 million for the quarter; on a year-over-year basis, the revenue trajectory implies 111.45% growth, while EPS and EBIT are tracking increases of 61.18% and 128.68%, respectively. The company’s main business is anchored by mineral interest agreements and royalties, and last quarter’s mix and margin quality suggest that consolidated profitability should remain sensitive to realized pricing and portfolio volumes. The most promising segment remains mineral interest agreements, which delivered $166.08 million last quarter; the company’s consolidated revenue forecast implies a robust year-over-year expansion of 111.45% this quarter.

Last Quarter Review

Royal Gold, Inc. reported revenue of $252.07 million, gross profit margin of 87.43%, GAAP net income attributable to shareholders of $127.00 million, net profit margin of 50.80%, and adjusted EPS of $2.06, with adjusted EPS increasing 40.14% year over year. The quarter highlighted notable margin resilience, with gross profitability well supported by the portfolio’s cash-flow characteristics and contract structure. Main business highlights: mineral interest agreements generated $166.08 million (approximately 65.89% of revenue) and royalties contributed $85.99 million (approximately 34.11%), while total revenue grew 30.04% year over year.

Current Quarter Outlook

Main Business

Royal Gold’s core earnings profile is driven by cash flows from mineral interest agreements and royalties. After last quarter’s mix skewed toward mineral interest agreements at roughly 65.89% of revenue, this composition indicates a sizeable contribution from fixed-structure cash flows that can sustain elevated gross margin lines. With forecast EPS of $2.39 and EBIT of $256.40 million, the company’s near-term operating leverage suggests that the primary swing factors will be realized portfolio volumes and settlement dynamics across assets under contract. Management’s track to a revenue estimate of $393.67 million, together with historical margin print strength, suggests the quarter’s narrative will center on whether profitability can outpace the top-line surge without a disproportionate rise in cost-to-collect or administrative expenses.

Most Promising Segment: Mineral Interest Agreements

Mineral interest agreements, at $166.08 million last quarter, remain the most influential segment in shaping quarterly cash generation. The structure of these agreements often provides accelerated participation in portfolio volumes, and when the consolidated forecast implies revenue growth of 111.45% year over year, it sets expectations that this segment will be the principal engine of upside in quarterly results. The implication for this quarter is that if volumes track with internal expectations, mineral interest agreements will likely support both top-line expansion and margin sustainment, leveraging the segment’s contribution ratio to the consolidated mix. The test will be maintaining margin integrity while scaling, and the segment’s performance will be key to whether reported EPS aligns with the $2.39 forecast or deviates in either direction.

Stock Price Drivers This Quarter

There are three critical datapoints likely to influence Royal Gold’s stock price reaction around the print: the revenue headline versus the $393.67 million forecast, the adjusted EPS outcome relative to the $2.39 baseline, and the degree to which gross margin remains aligned with last quarter’s 87.43%. A top-line beat without commensurate margin preservation may prompt mixed reactions, especially if EBIT uplift does not reflect revenue scale, so investors will scrutinize segment disclosures for evidence of quality versus quantity in growth. Conversely, an EPS beat supported by disciplined operating costs and a net profit margin directionally consistent with last quarter’s 50.80% would underpin a constructive post-earnings setup. Capital allocation signals—especially clarity around dividend trajectory or other cash returns—could also shape sentiment, but the near-term valuation anchors will be the intersection of realized margins with growth that has already been previewed by the company’s internal forecasts.

Analyst Opinions

Cautious and bearish stances are the majority within the January 1, 2026 to February 11, 2026 window, outnumbering outright bullish calls, and the commentary centers on valuation balance and normalized growth risk after a strong forecast. One prominent institution reiterated a Sell rating with a $265.00 price target, emphasizing that while near-term growth is visible, the current valuation embeds strong execution, leaving less room for disappointment if margins or volumes fall short. Another major bank downgraded Royal Gold to Sector Perform while simultaneously adjusting the price target to $335.00 from $246.00, reflecting a recalibration that acknowledges improved fundamentals yet frames the risk-reward as more balanced at prevailing levels. The thread through these cautious views is the need for the quarter to demonstrate that the anticipated 111.45% revenue increase can be translated into stable margin outputs and earnings that meet or exceed the projected $2.39 EPS, without relying on transient tailwinds. These institutions also underscore that operational momentum must be sustained beyond this quarter to justify further multiple expansion, directing attention to the durability of the cash-flow profile, the consistency of segment contributions, and management’s cost governance. In short, the majority perspective expects a solid print but remains guarded about how much upside is left to re-rate the shares unless margin and EPS outcomes materially exceed the baseline and the company provides evidence of lasting growth drivers that can bridge from this quarter’s strong setup into subsequent periods.