Tomorrow marks the first trading day after the long holiday. Today, let's review the performance of overseas markets during the holiday period.
In terms of European and American stock markets, the Dow Jones accumulated a gain of 0.44% during the long holiday, the Nasdaq rose 0.57%, and the S&P 500 increased by 0.39%. The UK's FTSE 100, France's CAC 40, and Germany's DAX rose approximately 1.70%, 1.29%, and 2.05% respectively.
In Asia-Pacific markets, the Hang Seng Index fell cumulatively by 0.1%, while the Hang Seng Tech Index gained 0.75%. South Korea's KOSPI and Japan's Nikkei 225 accumulated gains of 3.64% and 6.24% respectively.
For commodities, COMEX gold and COMEX silver rose cumulatively by 4.82% and 4% respectively. LME aluminum, LME copper, LME lead, LME zinc, and LME tin increased by 2.5%, 4.9%, 1.21%, 2.77%, and 2.94% respectively.
Among individual stocks, the US "Magnificent Seven" showed mixed performance with relatively small cumulative gains and losses. Large-cap Chinese concept stocks also exhibited similar patterns.
During the long holiday, besides the impressive performance of gold and silver, the semiconductor sector also performed well. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index accumulated a gain of 4.16%, with Micron Technology surging 11.05%. Additionally, in the Hong Kong stock market, SMIC and Hua Hong Semiconductor posted significant gains, both exceeding 14%.
Returning to the A-share market, on the last trading day before the holiday, the Shenzhen Component Index, ChiNext Index, STAR 50 Index, and CSI 500 Index all reached new highs for this rally. The CSI 300 Index hit a new high on the second-to-last trading day before the holiday, while the Shanghai Composite Index and SSE 50 Index approached their previous highs.
Looking at the trends of the two most influential market indices - the Shanghai Composite Index and SSE 50 Index - a W-bottom pattern has formed since September. Combined with the significant rally in brokerage stocks before the holiday, the post-holiday market should focus on brokerage sector performance. Once brokerage stocks gain momentum, it would be natural for the Shanghai Composite Index and SSE 50 Index to reach new highs for this rally.
With overseas markets rising during the long holiday, many might worry about the common pattern of A-shares opening higher but then declining after holidays. However, there's no need for such concerns. Since this is a bull market, neither overseas market volatility nor market gaming factors will change the overall upward trend. The outlook for post-holiday performance is clear: bullish, at least as a high-probability event.
Regarding sectors, continued rises in gold and silver spot and futures prices provide momentum for precious metals and base metals. Particularly, gold prices reaching $4,000 per ounce have significant leading implications for non-ferrous metal sectors. For the non-ferrous sector, the core logic remains market expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts.
In semiconductors, Advanced Micro Devices reached a significant partnership with OpenAI, with AMD's stock price surging over 28%. The strong performance of SMIC and Hua Hong Semiconductor in Hong Kong stocks, along with Micron's surge, provides momentum for A-share semiconductor, memory sectors, and AMD-related concept stocks.
In the A-share market, the memory sector recently showed signs of a major uptrend. For semiconductor and chip sectors, ETF funds appear to be a good choice, eliminating concerns about STAR Market trading permissions and individual stock volatility.
Regarding new energy batteries, Ganfeng Lithium, Tianqi Lithium, and CATL's Hong Kong stocks all posted significant gains during the long holiday. As solid-state batteries approach an industry trend inflection point, the market space is vast with promising prospects. Battery-related ETF funds are worth researching in this area.
The solid-state battery sector index, after 16 trading days of consolidation, shows signs of renewed upward movement, similar to the trend from late June to mid-July.
For AI hardware, overseas markets showed mixed performance during the long holiday. Focus should be on observing the trends of key players. Since jumping higher on September 11, NeoPhotonics and Innolight have consolidated for 13 trading days without breaking their overall pattern, requiring observation of directional choices.
In other areas, after jumping higher on September 22, Apple's stock price has traded sideways for 11 trading days and has entered a potential breakout time window. Based on experience, the probability of an upward breakout is higher. Therefore, focus should be on well-positioned Apple supply chain companies.
According to industry analysis, Bloomberg cited sources saying Apple is shelving plans to develop a low-cost Vision Pro headset, instead prioritizing development of AI glasses to compete with Meta. Apple is reallocating resources, including personnel. The first smart glasses may not feature displays and are designed to work with iPhones. Apple plans to preview this product in 2025 and launch it in 2027. Additionally, the display-equipped version originally scheduled for 2028 has been accelerated.
For humanoid robots, Figure 03 will be released on October 9. According to preview videos, dexterous wrists feature added cameras on the palm side, with electronic skin added to fingertips. Focus should be on Figure's domestic supply chain partners.
For the humanoid robot sector, particular attention should be paid to Tesla's humanoid robot supply chain. Among Tesla's humanoid robot supply chain, two core companies - Sanhua Intelligent Controls and Citic Dicastal - reached new historical highs before the holiday.
In summary: Four major indices including the Shenzhen Component Index reached new rally highs before the holiday, which has positive implications for the broader market. Attention should be paid to whether the Shanghai Composite Index can reach new highs, which is crucial for the entire market.
Among sectors that could lead index breakthroughs, focus should be on whether the securities sector can gain momentum. If this sector strengthens, market new highs would be secured.
For sectors, technology remains the absolute main theme, including AI industrial chains, solid-state batteries, and humanoid robots. As long as market style doesn't undergo major changes, these directions should remain primary focus areas.
In the short term, both the solid-state battery sector index and Apple's stock price show "single positive + sideways" structures, suggesting potential for upward breakthroughs. Key attention should be paid to whether they can rally upward.
According to national regulations, this analysis does not involve any trading recommendations, and market risks should be borne by investors themselves.