Abstract

Rivian Automotive, Inc. will report its fourth-quarter 2025 results on February 12, 2026 Post Market; this preview consolidates market expectations for revenue, margins, and adjusted EPS, reviews last quarter’s performance, and distills the key revenue drivers, profitability levers, and analyst views that could shape the near-term stock reaction.

Market Forecast

Market estimates for the current quarter point to revenue of $1.27 billion, a year-over-year decrease of 9.02%, with adjusted EPS projected at -$0.68, reflecting a 4.83% year-over-year change; EBIT is estimated at -$0.87 billion, implying a 6.59% year-over-year change. Automotive is expected to remain the core revenue engine this quarter while investors monitor margin trajectory; software and services, which generated $0.42 billion last quarter, is viewed as a potential incremental contributor as the installed base expands. The automotive segment remains the centerpiece of the company’s revenue model, and the near-term outlook centers on volume execution and pricing discipline amid a sequential step down from last quarter’s reported revenue base. Software and services, at $0.42 billion last quarter, presents longer-term monetization potential; year-over-year segment growth data is not available, but the revenue base offers an avenue for mix improvement and margin leverage.

Last Quarter Review

In the previous quarter, Rivian Automotive, Inc. reported revenue of $1.56 billion, a gross profit margin of 1.54%, a GAAP net loss attributable to common shareholders of -$1.17 billion with a net profit margin of -75.29%, and adjusted EPS of -$0.65, alongside year-over-year growth of 78.26% in revenue and a 33.67% improvement in adjusted EPS. The company delivered a top-line beat of $56.80 million versus estimates and posted an adjusted EPS beat of $0.07, even as the quarter-on-quarter net loss widened by 5.01%. Automotive contributed $1.14 billion and software and services provided $0.42 billion, with total revenue up 78.26% year over year, underscoring scale benefits that are beginning to touch gross profitability while consolidated margins remain negative.

Current Quarter Outlook (with major analytical insights)

Automotive revenue trajectory and profitability sensitivity

The current quarter’s revenue estimate of $1.27 billion implies a sequential step-down from the prior quarter’s $1.56 billion, positioning the automotive business as the central swing factor for reported results. With the most recent gross profit margin at 1.54%, the translation from unit volumes and mix into gross profit remains sensitive to scale, manufacturing efficiency, and pricing. When margins hover around breakeven on a gross basis, even modest fluctuations in delivery volumes, option uptake, or logistics costs can materially alter gross profit dollars and consolidated losses. Investors will parse commentary around average selling prices and configuration mix for signs of unit economics moving in a constructive direction. Equally important is the cadence of manufacturing activity and any operational adjustments that might affect fixed-cost absorption within cost of goods sold. Sustained progress on direct materials, logistics, and manufacturing overhead could drive incremental improvement from the 1.54% gross margin watermark; however, the revenue outlook’s year-over-year decline of 9.02% suggests that any margin uplift may need to come more from cost actions and mix than pure volume growth this quarter. The EBIT estimate of -$0.87 billion and projected adjusted EPS of -$0.68 continue to reflect a business in investment mode, where gains in unit economics must translate through to operating leverage before headline losses begin to compress meaningfully.

Software and services monetization and margin leverage

Software and services generated $0.42 billion last quarter and remains a notable lever for medium-term margin expansion, given its potential to carry structurally higher gross margins than vehicle hardware. As the installed base grows, the opportunity set for connected features, service revenues, and other non-hardware income should expand, providing a buffer against hardware cyclicality. While the current-quarter forecast does not break out software and services explicitly, qualitative traction here can help stabilize blended gross margin and reduce volatility tied to production swings. The path to meaningful earnings contribution from software and services depends on broadening the attach rate and deepening engagement, both of which hinge on usage and customer satisfaction across the fleet. The broader implication for this quarter is that even modest acceleration in software and services can have an outsize impact on gross profit dollars relative to its revenue share, particularly with hardware margins near breakeven. Investors will watch whether the company articulates clearer frameworks for recurring revenue streams and monetization pathways that can complement the core automotive business in the near term. From a consolidated perspective, the combination of a potentially softer hardware revenue quarter and a still-developing software and services contribution highlights why EBIT remains in negative territory on current estimates. A credible narrative connecting software and services growth to tangible gross margin lift would likely improve sentiment, as it aligns with a mix shift that can support better operating leverage over time.

Key swing factors for the stock this quarter

The first swing factor is the revenue bridge between the prior quarter’s $1.56 billion and the current estimate of $1.27 billion, which will be driven by the realized delivery cadence, configuration mix, and pricing relative to prior trends. Investors will also focus on how cost of goods sold evolves, particularly around materials, logistics, and manufacturing overhead, as the latest reported gross margin of 1.54% leaves little cushion for inefficiency. A sequential revenue decline paired with only slight margin progress could keep the GAAP net loss elevated near recent levels, whereas a more pronounced margin step-up could bring EBIT and EPS outcomes closer to the high end of expectations. The second swing factor is operating expense discipline and its interaction with the -$0.87 billion EBIT estimate. The extent to which selling, general and administrative expenses and research and development are contained without impairing execution will influence how much of any gross profit improvement reaches the operating line. Clear articulation around expense priorities and timing of larger programs will be closely scrutinized, as even small percentage shifts in operating costs can meaningfully affect per-share losses at this stage of scaling. The third swing factor is guidance and qualitative commentary that frame the path from low single-digit gross margin to durable double-digit levels over time. While explicit forward figures are not required to lift sentiment, investors will look for signposts on cost-down roadmaps, supplier agreements, and production efficiency improvements that make the 1.54% gross margin a floor rather than a ceiling. Any update that enhances confidence in a smoother unit ramp, a richer software and services attachment, or a faster fixed-cost absorption will likely drive a more constructive read-through for the stock; conversely, indications of weaker mix, cost pressure, or a softer revenue trajectory could reinforce the current bearish tilt reflected in near-term estimates.

Analyst Opinions

Bearish views currently dominate among institutional opinions within the most recent eligible window, with no corresponding bullish initiations or upgrades identified over the same period. J.P. Morgan reaffirmed a Sell rating with a $10.00 price target, underscoring caution around near-term fundamentals given the forecasted revenue contraction of 9.02% year over year and continued losses embedded in an estimated EBIT of -$0.87 billion and an adjusted EPS estimate of -$0.68 for the quarter. This stance aligns with the company’s latest reported gross profit margin of 1.54% and GAAP net loss of -$1.17 billion last quarter, which together suggest that the bridge to sustained profitability still depends on tangible improvements in unit economics and operating leverage. The bearish case emphasizes that when gross margins are near breakeven and net margins remain deeply negative at -75.29%, the stock’s near-term performance hinges on visible progress in manufacturing efficiency, mix optimization, and the emergence of higher-margin revenue. With the current quarter’s revenue estimate of $1.27 billion implying a sequential slowdown from $1.56 billion, bears argue that the magnitude of cost reductions and mix benefit required to improve EBIT and EPS may be challenging within a single quarter. From this vantage point, signs of a credible margin inflection, reinforced by consistent revenue execution and expense discipline, could challenge the Sell narrative; until then, the probability of headline results aligning with an ongoing investment phase keeps the risk-reward skewed to caution for many institutions. Viewed through this lens, the upcoming report’s most consequential datapoints will be the shape of the gross margin line, the cadence of operating expenses relative to revenue, and management’s qualitative roadmaps that can lend conviction to a progression toward improved profitability. Bears will be looking for confirmatory evidence that loss reduction is pacing slower than previously hoped or that revenue softness is more than seasonal, while any upside surprise on margins or a stronger revenue mix would force a reassessment. In short, the prevailing institutional view is cautious, grounded in the current-quarter forecast of lower revenue and persistent losses, with a high bar set for evidence of accelerating margin expansion or more resilient top-line dynamics.