CLSA has issued a research report, stating it recently hosted a group conference call for AIA (01299) with 55 investors participating. The call conveyed a consistent message: while growth may moderate after a robust first quarter in 2026, its underlying fundamentals remain solid. Current macro conditions are constructive, demand from Mainland visitors remains resilient, regulatory developments are supportive, and capital efficiency is improving. The firm maintained its earnings forecasts unchanged but, after rolling forward its valuation model, slightly raised its target price from HK$120 to HK$121, maintaining its "Outperform" rating.

The report noted that despite ongoing tensions in the Middle East, the overall macro backdrop remains favorable. Higher interest rates have a net positive impact, supporting reinvestment returns and the delivery of guaranteed yields, while inflation has a limited effect on short-term claims. Regarding the Hong Kong market, despite the Renminbi appreciating approximately 6% year-to-date, it has had no material impact on the purchasing behavior of Mainland visitors. Demand is primarily driven by the interest rate differential between the US and China and the low-return investment environment on the Mainland. Furthermore, although competition in Hong Kong's brokerage channel has intensified, AIA focuses on high-quality business and partnerships. Regulatory changes in Hong Kong over the past few quarters, such as capping product illustration rates at around 6.5% and limiting first-year commissions to 70%, are expected to curb aggressive pricing, shifting competition towards the quality of insurance advisor recommendations and value propositions.