On Tuesday, April 21, during the Asian trading session, spot gold experienced a brief rise before retreating again. It is currently trading above $4,800, maintaining a pattern of high-level consolidation. Following a series of previous rebounds, the market has temporarily entered a phase of consolidation, with bullish and bearish forces reaching a relative equilibrium as participants await new macroeconomic catalysts for directional cues.
From a fundamental perspective, ongoing uncertainties in the Middle East continue to provide underlying support for gold prices. Despite frequent signals of resumed negotiations, progress remains highly uncertain, compounded by the inconsistent implementation of ceasefires. This keeps safe-haven sentiment alive, attracting sustained allocation flows into gold and helping it hold within a high price range.
However, gold also faces significant constraints. Rising oil prices, driven by supply risks, are rekindling inflationary pressures from the energy sector. This directly limits the Federal Reserve's room for interest rate cuts, thereby exerting pressure on non-yielding gold. Gold is currently caught in a classic tug-of-war between "safe-haven support" and "interest rate constraints." The high-level price volatility is a direct reflection of the market weighing these two competing narratives.
In the short term, U.S. economic data will be a key variable determining the direction of the U.S. dollar and gold prices. Over the medium term, if inflation remains persistently high, gold's upside potential will be limited. Conversely, if economic data weakens and strengthens expectations for rate cuts, gold still has potential for further gains. Overall market sentiment remains cautious, with investors reluctant to chase prices higher at current levels. While volatility has narrowed, the risk of a potential trend shift is accumulating. Any data or geopolitical events that exceed expectations could easily trigger a rapid breakout.
Looking back at Monday's session, judging the trend based solely on news flow was difficult. The market opened with a significant decline but then oscillated and rebounded throughout the day. However, from a technical perspective, the pattern was clear: after hitting a low of $4,736 in the early session, gold stabilized and climbed, reaching a high near $4,828 during the U.S. session. This nearly 100-point rebound clearly signaled a return to a range-bound consolidation rhythm.
Technical Analysis: On the daily chart, gold's overall uptrend remains intact, but the pace of gains has noticeably slowed, indicating a period of high-level consolidation. The $4,850 level has repeatedly acted as resistance, suggesting significant selling pressure in the near term. Initial support lies around $4,780; a break below this level could lead to a further test of the $4,720 area. The MACD indicator shows signs of high-level divergence, suggesting some weakening in upward momentum, though no clear reversal signal has emerged yet.
From a 4-hour cycle perspective, gold prices are exhibiting a sideways consolidation structure, seesawing around $4,800 with moving averages converging, offering ambiguous directional signals. The KDJ indicator is in a neutral zone, indicating neither bulls nor bears have gained a decisive upper hand. A sustained break above $4,900 would suggest a continuation of the uptrend, while a fall below $4,720 could open the door for a deeper correction.
In summary, the outlook for Tuesday aligns with Monday's assessment: the overall structure for gold remains biased towards strength, with primary activity expected within the $4,750-$4,850 range. Traders can look for short-term opportunities flexibly within this context. The suggested trading strategy is to primarily look for buying opportunities on dips, with selling on rallies as a secondary approach. Key resistance is identified in the $4,850-$4,900 zone, while near-term support lies between $4,800 and $4,750. An early-session suggestion is to consider long positions around $4,800. Furthermore, the U.S.-Iran ceasefire agreement is set to expire on the 22nd; this timeframe is highly likely to provoke a significant market reaction, and strategies should be adjusted based on the actual developments that follow.