Gold Drops as Expected, Non-Farm Payroll Week to Test 4,000 Level Again

Deep News
Sep 28

On Monday, September 28, spot gold opened slightly lower and weakened quickly, touching a low near 4,161 so far, down as much as 2.8%, extending the weak trend from last week's weekly decline. Market sentiment has clearly turned cautious, with the U.S. dollar index rebounding about 0.15% and oil prices opening more than 1% higher, together weighing on gold prices. The real driver behind this is the geopolitical risk repricing signal released by Trump's rejection of Iran's proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, as well as the reinforced expectations of further Federal Reserve tightening. Investors need to pay close attention to this week's U.S. employment data and the progress of U.S.-Iran interactions, staying cautious in a high-volatility environment, being alert to downside risks from further rising interest rates while also watching for oversold rebound opportunities that could arise from geopolitical easing. Whether gold prices can stabilize ultimately still depends on the market's repricing of the balance between "higher rates" and "higher risk." On the technical side, gold failed to rebound further last week, with the weekly chart instead closing lower, meaning the outlook remains weak and laying the foundation for this week's decline. Although Monday's drop was also influenced by Trump's rejection of Iran's proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and rising Fed rate hike expectations, the technical picture had already shown signs of decline. Therefore, for this week's drop, we continue to look toward the previous low around 3,943-4,000, which is also the weekly lower band support. However, it is worth noting that the weekly lower band is still flat, with no sign of a breakdown for now, so remember to exit when the decline reaches this area. Looking at the daily chart, the daily level has completely moved as we expected, declining after being capped by the daily middle band. Today, after breaking below 4,235, the decline accelerated further, the small range has been broken, the downside space has opened up, and the lower band has been driven to turn downward, so the trading approach going forward will certainly still be to sell with the trend. Finally, looking at the four-hour level, gold has fallen in consecutive bearish candles with weak rebounds. Although I am bearish, I do not recommend chasing shorts, as the intraday decline has already been quite large and there is not much room left to chase. Moreover, after a sharp drop, there is often a corrective rally. Patiently wait for the correction to reach around 4,235 before shorting again. Sina partner platform futures account opening is safe, fast, and secure. Sina statement: This news is reprinted from a Sina partner media outlet. Sina publishes this article for the purpose of conveying more information and does not mean it agrees with or confirms its views or descriptions. The article content is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice. Investors operate at their own risk based on this information.

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

Most Discussed

  1. 1
     
     
     
     
  2. 2
     
     
     
     
  3. 3
     
     
     
     
  4. 4
     
     
     
     
  5. 5
     
     
     
     
  6. 6
     
     
     
     
  7. 7
     
     
     
     
  8. 8
     
     
     
     
  9. 9
     
     
     
     
  10. 10