On March 27, spot gold declined in the previous trading session as market skepticism persisted regarding reported US-Iran negotiations. US media indicated that the United States is preparing for a "final strike," while Iran dismissed US statements as deceptive. Renewed expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate hikes boosted oil prices and the US dollar, extending the downward pressure on gold that began after encountering resistance on Wednesday. However, the metal remains supported by the rebound initiated on Monday. Further declines may find support near the lower Bollinger Band or the 200-day moving average, presenting potential buying opportunities. A break above Wednesday's resistance at the 100-day moving average could pave the way for a test of the $5,000 level.
In terms of price action, gold opened at $4,511.07 per ounce in the Asian session, reaching an intraday high of $4,543.79 before retreating. During European and early US trading, it consolidated above $4,415, briefly rebounding around 22:00 US time before declining again to an intraday low of $4,351.40. The session concluded with a slight recovery, closing at $4,377.88. The daily trading range was $192.75, with a net decline of $133.19, or 2.95%.
Looking ahead to Friday, March 27, spot gold opened with a modest rebound as the US dollar and crude oil showed signs of easing upward momentum in early trading. A social media post from former President Trump indicating a further delay in targeting Iranian energy facilities provided some support for gold. Nevertheless, the metal remains under pressure and is likely to experience range-bound adjustments until it breaks above the $4,700 resistance level.
Market participants will monitor the final readings of the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for March and the one-year inflation expectations for March. The former may offer limited support for gold, while the latter, expected to show a notable increase, could signal rising inflationary pressures and weigh on gold prices. As a result, gold may continue to face headwinds during US trading hours.
Later in the day, speeches from several Federal Reserve officials will be closely watched. These include remarks from 2027 FOMC voting member and Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin, as well as opening comments from 2027 FOMC voter and San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly. Additionally, 2026 FOMC voter and Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker will speak on the economic outlook and monetary policy. Given their recent dovish tone, these speeches may lend support to gold. Overall, trading during the US session is expected to be volatile. Positive data and commentary could fuel a rebound, while neutral or negative outcomes may lead to further consolidation or declines.
On the geopolitical front, despite repeated US statements about delayed strikes and productive negotiations, Iran has consistently denied any talks taking place, claiming that US restraint stems from Iranian threats to target regional power facilities. The stark divergence in narratives has heightened market uncertainty rather than calming tensions, limiting gold's rebound potential and keeping downside risks alive.
In the near term, although geopolitical conflicts persist, market focus has shifted to inflation, interest rates, and dollar movements, temporarily overshadowing safe-haven demand. Until a clear peace agreement is reached, gold is likely to trade within a wide range. However, once a deal is finalized, renewed safe-haven interest and expectations of interest rate cuts could drive prices to new highs.
Drawing parallels with historical patterns—such as the oil price surges between July 2007 and August 2008, and again from 2020 to 2022—gold has historically entered bull markets following periods of significant oil price appreciation. The current rise in oil prices may similarly set the stage for a bull run in gold later this year or next. As such, the recent decline in gold may represent a mid-cycle correction within a broader uptrend rather than a reversal of the bullish trend.
From a technical perspective, on the monthly chart, gold has weakened significantly this month, erasing gains from the previous three months and raising concerns about a potential trend reversal. However, as long as prices hold above the key ascending trendline support, the outlook remains one of consolidation followed by a resumption of the uptrend. A monthly close below this level would increase the risk of further declines.
On the weekly chart, gold has formed a bullish reversal pattern after recent declines. A weekly close confirming this pattern could signal a rebound toward $4,800 or even $5,000 in the coming week.
On the daily chart, Thursday’s decline extended the resistance-led pullback from Wednesday. Failure to break above the 100-day moving average, combined with pressure from short-term moving averages, suggests a likelihood of further consolidation or declines. Intraday trading may test support near $4,300 or $4,200, while resistance remains at the 100-day moving average.
Intraday trading guidance will be provided based on real-time market conditions.
Preliminary trading levels for reference—actual entry and exit points subject to live updates:
Gold: Support at $4,320 or $4,240; resistance at $4,445 or $4,520. Silver: Support at $66.10 or $64.10; resistance at $69.75 or $71.90.