Due to blockages in major export routes, oil storage facilities across Middle Eastern nations are currently facing the threat of reaching full capacity. As a result, these countries have been compelled to implement production cuts. This development has exacerbated the already tense international crude oil market. On March 9, both Brent crude futures and WTI crude futures surpassed $110 per barrel during trading sessions. Analysts suggest there is significant room for further increases in global oil prices.

Dong Xiucheng, Executive Dean of the China International Carbon Neutrality Economy Research Institute at the University of International Business and Economics, stated, "Middle Eastern oil producers have a total buffer period of approximately 25 days, comprising about 22 days of onshore storage and an additional 3-4 days' capacity on tankers at sea. Once storage capacity is exhausted, forced well shutdowns will be necessary to prevent overflow, facility damage, and environmental contamination."

Data from Longzhong Information shows that the current total supply disruption/production cut from major Middle Eastern oil producers has reached 5.3-5.4 million barrels per day. This includes a 3.3 million barrel per day disruption from Iran, a 1.5 million barrel per day cut from Iraq, a reduction expanded to 300,000 barrels per day from Kuwait, and a cut of 200,000-300,000 barrels per day from the United Arab Emirates. Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Bahrain, and Oman have not yet reported reductions in crude output.

According to J.P. Morgan forecasts, if the blockade persists, supply disruptions could rise to 6 million barrels per day by this weekend (March 14-15), and exceed 7 million barrels per day by the following weekend.

Wu Yan, a crude oil analyst at Longzhong Information, indicated that with no signs of easing in the conflict involving the US, Israel, and Iran, a prolonged stagnation in the Strait of Hormuz could force deeper production cuts in the Middle East, potentially widening the supply gap further. Against this backdrop, international oil prices are widely expected to have substantial upside potential.

Wu Yan predicts volatile but significant price increases this week, with Brent futures potentially trading between $105 and $130 per barrel, possibly exceeding the record high of $128 per barrel set during the Ukraine crisis. Liao Bo, Chief Macroeconomic Analyst at Northeast Securities Research Institute, even forecasts that Brent crude prices could surge towards $150 per barrel.

From Dong Xiucheng's perspective, short-term markets may follow a pattern of: urgent storage shortages → accelerated production cuts → widening supply gap → spot price premiums → futures price rallies, indicating extremely high risks for upward oil price movement.

The repercussions of the conflict extend beyond the participating nations and the oil and gas sector, impacting more countries and various industries. For oil-producing countries, production cuts not only mean increased extraction and facility maintenance costs alongside decreased export volumes but also significant economic and political consequences.

Dong Xiucheng explained that well shutdowns come at a high cost for oil fields, potentially causing permanent damage to underground reservoir pressure. Restarting production is expensive and output recovery could take up to a month. Historically and realistically, Middle Eastern producers cannot sustain output below levels needed for domestic consumption plus minimum exports for long, as this would adversely affect their finances, foreign exchange reserves, and public livelihood.

Using Iran as an example, assessments from the U.S. Energy Information Administration suggest that blocking the strait could cost Iran approximately $150 million in daily export revenue, not including losses from significant currency depreciation due to the conflict.

The effects are spreading globally. Wholesale electricity prices have shown sharp fluctuations in power markets in the Netherlands, Denmark, and Germany. In Asia, stock markets in Japan and South Korea have continued to fall sharply. Internationally, prices for fertilizers and grains have also risen significantly, further fueling inflation concerns.

In the bond options market, traders have begun betting that the Federal Reserve will forego interest rate cuts this year and are reassessing the possibility of rate hikes by the European Central Bank.

Ming Ming, Chief Economist at CITIC Securities, stated that if the US-Israel-Iran conflict persists, sustained high production and energy costs would pose global inflation risks. Consequently, countries are considering measures such as releasing strategic petroleum reserves to alleviate price pressures. Ming Ming emphasized that nations heavily reliant on energy and food imports, such as those in Europe, Japan, and India, would be more severely affected.