Abstract

Steven Madden, Ltd. will report fourth-quarter and fiscal 2025 results on February 25, 2026 Pre-Market; this preview outlines expected revenue, margins, earnings trajectory, segment mix, and prevailing Street views heading into the print.

Market Forecast

Based on current forecasts, Steven Madden, Ltd. is expected to deliver revenue of $753.38 million, up 37.35% year over year, adjusted EPS of $0.47, down 10.91% year over year, and EBIT of $50.10 million, down 0.35% year over year. Formal guidance for gross margin and the net profit margin for this quarter is not provided; the most recent reported gross margin was 41.53% and net margin was 3.07%.

Wholesale remains the largest contributor by revenue and is the anchor of the near‑term outlook, while direct-to-consumer continues to be the operational lever for margin and brand engagement. The most promising segment is direct-to-consumer, which generated $221.51 million last quarter; formal segment-level year-over-year growth data was not disclosed, but management focus suggests this channel’s trajectory remains a key determinant of the quarter’s margin and earnings path.

Last Quarter Review

In the previous quarter, Steven Madden, Ltd. reported revenue of $667.88 million, gross profit margin of 41.53%, GAAP net profit attributable to the parent company of $20.53 million, net profit margin of 3.07%, and adjusted EPS of $0.43, down 52.75% year over year. Net profit rose 152.00% quarter over quarter, signaling a sequential rebound that reflected better sell-through and expense control versus the prior period. By business line, wholesale generated $442.70 million and direct-to-consumer delivered $221.51 million, with total company revenue up 6.92% year over year and licensing adding $3.68 million to the mix.

Current Quarter Outlook

Wholesale: Revenue Anchor and Margin Sensitivity

Wholesale is the largest revenue contributor and will carry much of the weight in this quarter’s top-line outcome. The most recent quarter’s wholesale revenue of $442.70 million demonstrated the segment’s scale and downstream reach across key retail partners. The principal sensitivities in wholesale hinge on order cadence, reorder velocity, and promotional intensity at accounts, all of which flow directly into realized pricing and margin capture. With last quarter’s gross margin at 41.53%, the quarter-to-quarter trajectory for margin in wholesale will be influenced by product mix—where fashion boots, dress styles, and casual silhouettes each carry differing margin profiles—and by freight and logistics costs that affect delivered margin. A key watchpoint is how price points and promotional activity align with consumer demand at retail partners; tighter promotional bands support margin, while broad discounting erodes it. Even modest improvements in sell-through and inventory turns at accounts can support full-price realization, which tends to lift the consolidated gross margin. Conversely, any broad-based markdowns tied to late-season inventory could skew realized margin below the prior quarter’s line. The wholesale result also shapes operating leverage: with EBIT at $46.25 million last quarter and forecasted at $50.10 million this quarter, modest volume upside can provide incremental operating leverage, while input costs and promotional dynamics can quickly compress EBIT if pricing power is blunted.

Direct-to-Consumer: Growth Lever and Earnings Multiplier

The direct-to-consumer channel generated $221.51 million last quarter and continues to function as a critical growth lever for both brand engagement and earnings quality. Retail stores and e-commerce form the backbone of this segment’s contribution, giving the company tighter control over pricing, merchandising cadence, and inventory exposure compared with wholesale. Margin in the DTC channel is traditionally supported by full-price sell-through, disciplined promotions, and better visibility of customer conversion; the configuration of collections, the strength of newness, and the timeliness of replenishment are central to maintaining this margin profile across the quarter. Digital traffic, conversion rates, and average order value tend to be powerful drivers in DTC, and operational execution on these fronts can provide a meaningful lift to EBIT even if the absolute revenue contribution does not eclipse wholesale. Because DTC typically commands better margin structure, stable or improving sell-through can offset volatility in wholesale, improving consolidated gross margin and providing a modest buffer for EPS. The degree to which DTC flows expand early in the quarter will set the tone for consolidated margin and will be a prominent topic in investor interpretation of the print. If merchandising execution aligns with demand pockets and e-commerce performance holds, this segment can be an earnings multiplier in the quarter, supporting the forecast of $0.47 in EPS despite a decline of 10.91% year over year.

Key Stock Price Drivers This Quarter

The stock’s near-term reaction will likely be shaped by revenue delivery versus the $753.38 million forecast, the quality of margins against last quarter’s 41.53% baseline, and updates to the earnings trajectory implied by the $0.47 EPS estimate. Investors will parse management commentary on inventory health, SKU productivity, and promotional discipline to gauge how sustainable any margin improvement may be into the first half of 2026. The outlook for EBIT—forecast at $50.10 million, down 0.35% year over year—also sets a compact hurdle; a moderate beat on EBIT through better-than-expected gross margin or lower opex would help offset the EPS headwind, whereas pressure on margin in either wholesale or DTC could magnify the EPS variance. On the demand front, retailer reorder patterns and online momentum will be closely watched proxies for in-season acceptance; even incremental shifts in reorder activity can move revenue outcomes and alter consolidated margin math. The balance between pricing power and promotional activity across channels will be decisive: tighter promotional bands can lift gross margin but may temper volume, while broader discounting can move volume at the expense of earnings quality. Communication on product newness—whether selected franchises gain traction—will color expectations for the pace of growth beyond the quarter. Investors will also seek clarity on the cadence of expense discipline, given that last quarter’s net margin was 3.07%; expanding that margin by even modest basis points would signal improved leverage heading into the spring season. In summary, top-line execution relative to the forecast, channel mix favoring higher-margin DTC, and signs of margin resilience are the combination most likely to influence the stock’s post-earnings direction.

Analyst Opinions

Recent views are predominantly constructive, with approximately three-quarters of the collected opinions either maintaining or upgrading to Buy, and about one-quarter expressing a more cautious stance; the majority view is bullish. Needham upgraded Steven Madden, Ltd. to Buy during January, highlighting improved confidence in the setup into earnings and a supportive trajectory for the company across channels that investors have been monitoring. Telsey Advisory’s Jason Strominger maintained a Buy rating with a $43.00 price target, signaling conviction in the earnings path and valuation framework despite the EPS estimate’s decline of 10.91% year over year for the upcoming quarter. BTIG’s Janine Stichter reiterated a Buy rating with a $40.00 target, adding to the chorus of constructive calls as consensus revenue expectations have risen to $753.38 million, up 37.35% year over year. Aggregated coverage indicates the stock carries an overweight tilt, with the mean price target cited around $47.00, reflecting willingness among several institutions to look through the near-term EPS compression if revenue scales and margins hold up.

The bullish case aligns to several observable pillars in the setup. First, rising revenue expectations materially raise the probability that the company can offset the EPS headwind if margin quality is preserved or expands modestly. The $753.38 million revenue forecast implies healthy demand, and if channel mix skews toward the higher-margin DTC contribution or wholesale partners maintain tighter markdown discipline, consolidated margin can move favorably versus last quarter’s 41.53%. Second, sequential improvement in profitability—net profit increased 152.00% quarter over quarter last period—suggests operational levers have been effective in stabilizing earnings power. Analysts in the bullish cohort are implicitly looking for continuity: stable freight and logistics costs, controlled promotions, and effective merchandising in key categories can underpin EBIT closer to the $50.10 million forecast. Third, position sizing among investors has been sensitive to channel-level signals; encouraging indications in DTC traffic or wholesale reorder cadence tend to attract incremental buying and support constructive rating stances. The emphasis across bullish calls is not on headline growth alone, but on the quality of that growth—full-price sell-through, inventory discipline, and the absence of broad-based markdowns are central to their positive framing.

These institutions also emphasize how modestly positive variances can compound through the model. A small upside in revenue, when coupled with even a slight margin improvement, can produce outsized effects on EBIT because of operating leverage. Given last quarter’s margin baseline and the scale of wholesale, a small pruning of promotions or better-than-expected demand in key franchises could translate into upside in operating income. This is where DTC’s contribution matters: strong conversion and steady average order value can help cushion any margin volatility in wholesale, aligning with the broader bullish thesis that Steven Madden, Ltd. can meet or modestly exceed the quarter’s consolidated expectations even if EPS runs below prior-year levels. Positive commentary from management on inventory and demand visibility would further validate the bullish stance held by Needham, Telsey Advisory, and BTIG.

Market psychology also plays a role in this pre-earnings window. With consensus projecting robust top-line growth, many bullish analysts view the EPS decline as a transitionary effect rather than a sign of deterioration in the earnings model. The argument is that a strong revenue base and normalized margin dynamics provide a platform for EPS recovery across subsequent quarters, assuming promotions remain disciplined and product newness resonates at retail. In scenario analyses presented by bullish institutions, the key swing variables—pricing integrity in wholesale and conversion in DTC—are seen as manageable within the current operating environment. As such, they prefer to lean into names where merchandising control and direct channel execution are prominent, and Steven Madden, Ltd. fits that preference based on the most recent print’s evidence and the forecast mix in the upcoming report.

In closing, the majority of recent institutional commentary anticipates that Steven Madden, Ltd. will deliver a credible revenue outcome near the $753.38 million mark, with margin stability serving as the differentiator for whether EBIT and EPS meet or slightly beat the forecast. The underpinning of the bullish stance is the expectation of discipline—on promotions, inventory, and channel execution—while recognizing that the EPS comparison is tougher against last year. With direct-to-consumer positioned as a margin lever and wholesale as the revenue anchor, analysts in the bullish camp believe the company is set up to navigate the quarter productively and sustain investor confidence into the spring season.