根据芝加哥商品交易所（CME）的数据，交易员们目前预计，美联储在本月下旬加息25个基点的可能性超过66%。这一预期显著上升，主要受到上周五杰克逊霍尔会议上凯文·沃什（Kevin Warsh）发表鹰派言论的推动。
而在仅仅一周之前，市场认为加息的概率还不到40%。短短数日，预期发生了戏剧性的转变——从不足四成跃升至逾六成六，凸显了货币政策路径的高度不确定性。这一变化不仅反映了市场参与者对沃什讲话的即时反应，也暗示着投资者正重新校准他们对美联储政策紧缩步伐的预判。
值得注意的是，尽管概率大幅攀升，仍有三成多的市场参与者认为美联储将按兵不动。这种观点分歧本身就构成了一种信号——在通胀压力和经济增长担忧之间，金融市场正陷入一种微妙的平衡。无论如何，随着会议日期的临近，这些概率数字无疑将持续吸引全球投资者的密切关注。
Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.