He Bosheng: Gold and Crude Oil Trading Strategies Ahead of Non-Farm Payroll Data

Deep News
Yesterday

Gold Latest Market Trend Analysis: On February 10, analysis of gold market drivers: On Tuesday, during Asian and European trading hours, spot gold trended lower, halting its two-day rally, and was trading around $5,035 per ounce, down approximately 0.4% for the day. However, amid mixed signals, gold demonstrated resilience near the psychological $5,000 level without triggering strong follow-up selling. The outcome of Japan's early general election last Sunday, which removed political uncertainty, along with signs of easing tensions in the Middle East, continued to support market optimism, applying downward pressure on the safe-haven precious metal. Meanwhile, investors anticipate the Federal Reserve will implement at least two 25-basis-point rate cuts in 2026. This expectation, coupled with ongoing concerns over Fed independence, has weighed on the U.S. dollar, which hovered near a one-week low of 96.79, thereby providing support for non-yielding gold. Traders appeared reluctant to place aggressive directional bets ahead of Wednesday's U.S. non-farm payrolls report and Friday's latest U.S. consumer inflation data.

Gold Technical Analysis: Gold opened higher yesterday and maintained gains with consolidation, experiencing another wave of increases in the evening session to reach a high of $5,086 before closing with a positive candle above the 10-day moving average. From a daily chart perspective, the rally was driven by three main factors: momentum from Friday's bullish close, ongoing safe-haven buying sentiment, and additional upward pressure from a weakening U.S. dollar. Despite the positive close above the 10-day MA, the candle's body was not particularly large, and intraday momentum showed signs of exhaustion, suggesting caution regarding the current strength. The broader structure is still viewed as a technical rebound within an oversold correction, with amplified short-term volatility but no clear reversal of the medium-term downtrend. Key resistance remains near last week's high of $5,090-$5,100, while support levels to watch are near the moving averages at $5,010, $4,960, and $4,920. Overall, the short-term trading strategy for gold today is to prioritize buying on dips, with selling on rallies as a secondary approach. Key resistance is identified between $5,090 and $5,140, and key support lies between $4,980 and $4,930.

Crude Oil Latest Market Trend Analysis: Crude Oil Market Drivers Analysis: During Tuesday's Asian session, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices maintained high-level consolidation around $64 per barrel amid ample supply, indicating continued support from geopolitical factors. Recent de-escalation in Middle East tensions has trimmed some risk premium. Following indirect talks between the U.S. and Iran in Oman regarding the nuclear issue, both sides expressed willingness to continue negotiations, easing market fears of a rapid escalation. This development has partially alleviated concerns over shipping security in the Strait of Hormuz, a critical passage for over 20 million barrels of daily crude oil exports. However, risks have not fully dissipated. The current price strength is not driven by a fundamental improvement in supply-demand dynamics but rather by lingering geopolitical tensions. With global inventories continuing to build and the supply glut persisting, oil prices face medium-term pressure. In the short term, WTI crude is likely to continue fluctuating within a range, with markets closely monitoring geopolitical developments and official assessments of supply-demand prospects.

Crude Oil Technical Analysis: On the daily chart, oil prices ended their consecutive positive closes with a large bearish candle. The moving average system still supports a bullish alignment, maintaining the medium-term uptrend. The MACD indicator remains above the zero line, indicating dominant bullish momentum, suggesting the medium-term trend is upward. On the 1-hour chart, prices have gradually rebounded to the upper boundary of the recent range, with minor consolidation observed near this level during the early session. The short-term objective trend is upward within the range. Momentum-wise, the MACD is above zero with bullish dominance, suggesting a test of the range's upper limit today, though a breakout appears unlikely. The recommended trading strategy for crude oil today is to focus on buying on dips, supplemented by selling on rallies. Key resistance is seen between $65.5 and $66.5, while key support lies between $63.0 and $62.0.

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

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