Five years ago, the industry questioned who would emerge as the ultimate winner in the less-than-truckload (LTL) express sector. Today, the competitive dynamics have significantly evolved. As 2025 marks the conclusion of China's 14th Five-Year Plan, the modern logistics industry has demonstrated resilience amid complex conditions, achieving a total revenue of 14.3 trillion yuan with a year-on-year growth rate of 4.1%, underscoring its indispensable role as a pillar of the producer services sector. Looking ahead, the industry is transitioning from a phase of scale expansion to one focused on quality and efficiency improvements, with structural optimization and momentum transformation becoming the main themes. Within this transformation, the competitive landscape for LTL express companies has undergone dramatic changes: leading players are gradually shifting from "price wars" to "AI empowerment." Reflecting on the 2021 article "Analysis: The Battle of LTL Express Leaders Begins, Who Will Be the Final Winner?" on the eve of the 15th Five-Year Plan period, the battlefield has clearly changed. This article will review key events in the LTL sector and explore the next breakthrough point for the industry.

01 Industry Structure: From a Hundred Flowers Blooming to a Tripartite Balance I. Market Size: A Continuously Growing Trillion-Yuan Blue Ocean According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, China's freight volume reached 58.7 billion tons in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 3.2%. Categorized by transport mode—road, waterway, railway, and civil aviation—road freight volume accounted for the largest share at 43.29 billion tons, representing 73.7% of the total freight market with a growth rate of 3.4%. The substantial road freight market can support multiple logistics companies with market capitalizations in the hundreds of billions. Further segmenting the road freight market by cargo weight reveals a "pyramid" structure in China: express delivery, LTL express, and full truckload, ranked by revenue as express < LTL < full truckload. According to iResearch forecasts, China's LTL express market was valued at 2.1 trillion yuan in 2020.

Summary: 1. The market size continues to grow: Projected to exceed 3 trillion yuan by 2026, it remains one of the most promising growth segments in the logistics industry. 2. Market concentration is increasing: The CR10 (combined market share of the top 10 companies) rose from 78.4% in 2020 to 90.5% in 2025, indicating a strengthening Matthew effect. 3. The dimension of competition is shifting: Moving from price wars to AI-enabled competition, with technology driving becoming the core competency. 4. Leading companies are expanding their advantages: Market shares continue to grow for top players like S.F. Holding, JD Logistics, Deppon Logistics, Best Inc., and ZTO Express.

By 2026, driven by the rapid development of large e-commerce parcels and B2B e-commerce, the LTL express market size is expected to surpass 3 trillion yuan, remaining one of the most promising growth areas in logistics.

II. Evolution of Business Models: From Four Models to the Coexistence of Three In 2021, according to research by Whale Insight Consulting, LTL express companies were categorized into four business models. The prediction then was that the dedicated line market would be the first to be squeezed out, with its share absorbed by the other three models. As market competition intensified, further monopolization and mergers were expected, eventually leading to a landscape dominated by direct-operated and franchise models. By 2026, this prediction has largely been validated. The market share of dedicated lines has significantly shrunk, and alliance models are also consolidating (e.g., Yimidida merging with other alliances, Dekun acquiring a 27.5% stake in Suning Jieda). The industry structure has gradually evolved into a competition primarily between "direct-operated vs. franchise" models.

02 The Era of Price Wars: The Path of Inward Competition from 2021-2024 I. Comparison of Volume, Revenue, and Unit Price Data (2020 baseline) JD Logistics 2025 Data: *Note: JD Logistics' revenue includes multiple businesses such as express delivery, LTL express, and supply chain. Its LTL express business revenue is estimated to be approximately 35-40 billion yuan.

Summary: 1. Volume data: Franchise > Alliance > Direct-operated 2. LTL express revenue: S.F. Express (33.93 billion yuan, 2023) ≈ JD Express (approx. 35-40 billion yuan) > Deppon Express (13.97 billion yuan, 2023) 3. Unit price: Direct-operated > Franchise > Alliance 4. Profitability: The overall profitability of the LTL express industry is currently weak. Disclosed financial reports for H1 2025 show Deppon's net profit margin at 0.24% and Best's at 8.46%. 5. R&D Investment: JD Logistics invested 4.136 billion yuan in R&D, a year-on-year increase of 15.82%, applying AI capabilities across its entire supply chain.

II. The Logic and Limitations of Price Wars The logic of price wars is to exchange volume for price to capture market share. In 2021, Chinese customers had relatively low requirements for LTL express delivery times but were highly price-sensitive. Consequently, franchise and alliance companies relied on low prices to seize market share. Simultaneously, direct-operated leaders like S.F. Holding and Deppon Logistics began developing franchise businesses to compete in the LTL market, leading to increasingly fierce price wars later on.

The limitations of price wars result in a vicious cycle. A typical case is the lesson from Best's courier business. In 2017, Best expanded into courier services, leading to continuous net losses, with a net loss of 2.113 billion yuan in 2018. After discontinuing the courier business in 2019 to focus fully on LTL express, it achieved a net profit of 218 million yuan in 2020 and submitted a listing application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. The lesson: blind expansion into non-core businesses only disperses resources and hinders the main business. Price wars are not a sustainable strategy.

Another case involves Deppon's transformation gains and losses. In 2018, Deppon listed and renamed itself "Deppon Express," focusing on developing its courier business. Data interpretation showed that the gross margin level of the LTL business was twice that of the courier business. However, after two years of development, the comprehensive gross margin fell from 14.1% to 11.62%, related to the industry-wide price wars. The lesson: abandoning a high-margin business (LTL) to compete in a low-margin business (courier) may seem market-responsive but risks losing core competitiveness.

III. Evolution of the Competitive Landscape from 2015-2024 Key Events for Chinese LTL Express Companies The entry of express delivery/e-commerce giants into LTL express intensified price wars: 1. ZTO Express: Began LTL operations in 2016, handled 6.88 million tons in 2020, entered the first tier of Cainiao service indices; surpassed 11.33 million tons in 2023, ranking third, with strong cash flow. 2. YTO Express: Entered LTL in 2017, invested 600 million yuan in Deppon in 2020, currently ranked seventh. 3. JD Logistics: Established in 2017, leveraging JD Group's e-commerce business to quickly expand into LTL and supply chain services. Through acquisitions—Kuayue Express (August 2020, fully acquired for 3 billion yuan), Deppon shares (March 2022, acquired 66.49% stake; full privatization completed in 2026 for a total investment of approx. 12.8 billion yuan), and Dada Group (privatized June 2025, subsequently acquiring its on-demand delivery business for a total of approx. $790 million)—JD Logistics rapidly filled gaps in high-timeliness air freight, large-item logistics, and instant delivery. In 2025, total operating revenue reached 217.147 billion yuan, up 18.77% YoY; net profit attributable to parent was 6.647 billion yuan, up 7.25% YoY. LTL express revenue accounted for approximately 35-40 billion yuan (16-18% of total revenue). 4. Kuayue Express: A direct-operated model emphasizing timeliness advantages. 2023 revenue was 13.97 billion yuan, with a 12% market share, ranking second. Although its volume lagged behind Best and ZTO, its revenue led due to superior timeliness and service.

The inevitable result of price wars was the LTL express industry entering a phase of "volume growth without revenue growth," with continuously declining gross margins and significantly weakened corporate profitability.

03 The Dawn of a Breakthrough: The Rise of AI Technology (2025-2026) I. Industry Pain Points: Deep-Seated Issues Unresolved by Price Wars Despite intense price wars from 2015-2024, core industry pain points remained fundamentally unsolved. Conclusion: Price wars only address short-term "volume" issues but cannot resolve deeper problems related to "efficiency," "quality," and "forecasting."

II. AI Technology: From Price Competition to Value Competition By 2025, with the maturation and proliferation of artificial intelligence technology, the LTL express industry found a new path to breakthrough—AI empowerment. AI technology overcomes the limitations of price wars by shifting the focus from "exchanging price for volume" to "winning through efficiency."

04 The New LTL Express Landscape Under AI Empowerment (2026) I. Industry Large Models: AI Deployment by Logistics Giants During 2024-2025, as AI technology matured, logistics giants deployed large models, ushering the LTL express industry into a new phase of AI empowerment.

The core value of AI empowerment includes: 1. Cost Reduction: Lowering transportation, warehousing, and labor costs through intelligent scheduling and demand forecasting. 2. Efficiency Enhancement: Improving operational efficiency and shortening response times via real-time monitoring and anomaly alerts. 3. Quality Improvement: Reducing damage rates and enhancing service quality through intelligent sorting and packaging optimization. 4. Revenue Increase: Boosting gross margins and profitability via precise pricing and demand forecasting.

JD Logistics' AI Practice Case JD Logistics is at the forefront of AI application. Key AI applications in 2025 included: Data Highlights: 1. 2025 R&D investment of 4.136 billion yuan, a 15.82% YoY increase. 2. Possession of a professional R&D team numbering in the thousands. 3. 60% and 35% improvements in city coverage for 211 timeliness and next-day delivery timeliness in warehouse-and-distribution, respectively. 4. Launch of the industry's first "Seconds Delivery Warehouse" integrated warehousing and distribution service.

05 From Price Wars to AI Empowerment: Restructuring the Competitive Landscape I. Competitiveness Scoring in 2021 The initial article provided a 2021 competitiveness score based on volume, service, and cash flow (rank-based points 1-8), with profitability adding or subtracting a point. The conclusion: the top three scorers were S.F. Holding, Best Inc., and YTO Express.

Evolution of Actual Industry Rankings from 2023-2025 According to the "2023-2024 China LTL Enterprise Ranking" by Translink and public market data, the competitive landscape changed significantly.

2023 LTL Logistics TOP 30 Ranking (Partial): *Note: Kuayue Express and Deppon were acquired by JD Logistics; 2023 data is listed separately, but they are integrated into JD Logistics from 2025 onward.

Data Interpretation: 1. S.F. Express: Topped revenue rankings for five consecutive years, achieving first place in both revenue and volume, with leading AI capabilities. 2. JD Logistics: Through acquisitions of Kuayue Express and Deppon, quickly filled gaps in high-timeliness air freight and large-item logistics, forming an "instant + comprehensive + high-timeliness" full-scenario service capability. 2025 LTL express revenue was approximately 35-40 billion yuan, comparable to S.F. Express. 3. Market Concentration: The LTL logistics CR10 reached 85.6% in 2023, up 7.2 percentage points from 78.4% in 2020, indicating continued industry consolidation. Concentration increased further after JD Logistics' acquisitions. 4. Top Three by Volume: S.F. Express (12.96 million tons) > Best Logistics (12.04 million tons) > ZTO Express (11.33 million tons). 5. Emergence of a "LTL Group" with annual volume of 30 million tons: S.F. Express volume is expected to exceed 15 million tons by 2025.

Key Industry Changes in 2024-2025 Core Findings: 1. S.F. Express maintained its lead in revenue and volume, benefiting from its direct-operated model, superior service quality, and AI technology empowerment. 2. JD Logistics, leveraging its integrated supply chain and acquisition integrations (Kuayue, Deppon, Dada), achieved total revenue exceeding 217.1 billion yuan, with LTL express revenue around 35-40 billion yuan (including acquired businesses), forming a full-scenario service capability. 3. Best Logistics ranked second by volume but faced growth challenges due to its franchise model and insufficient AI capabilities. 4. ZTO Express, with strong cash flow and its express delivery network, rapidly surpassed 10 million tons in volume, ranking third. 5. Kuayue Express, acquired by JD Logistics, saw its timeliness advantages synergize with JD's aviation network. 6. Deppon, acquired by JD Logistics, complemented JD with its large-item logistics capability. 7. Market concentration continued to rise: CR10 increased from 78.4% in 2020 to 85.6% in 2023, projected to exceed 90% by 2025.

II. Competitiveness Scoring for 2026 (AI Empowerment Edition) With the proliferation of AI, scoring criteria needed adjustment. "AI Capability" and "Acquisition Integration" were introduced as new dimensions.

2026 Estimated Scoring: *Note: Kuayue Express and Deppon, acquired by JD Logistics, are not included in independent rankings; Cainiao, as a platform player, is not included in the comprehensive ranking.

Explanation: 1. S.F. Holding: Ranked first in 2023 revenue (33.93 billion yuan) and volume (12.96 million tons); deployment of Fengzhi and Fengyu large models; leading AI capability; overall score ranked first. 2. JD Logistics: 2025 total revenue 217.147 billion yuan (including express, LTL, supply chain); LTL express revenue approx. 35-40 billion yuan (16-18%, incl. acquired businesses); formed full-scenario capability via acquisitions (Kuayue ~3B yuan, Deppon ~12.8B yuan, Dada ~$790M); net profit attributable to parent 6.647B yuan, adjusted net profit 7.71B yuan; R&D investment 4.136B yuan, up 15.82% YoY; integrated supply chain customer revenue 116.2B yuan, up 33% YoY; strong AI capability; overall score ranked second. 3. Kuayue Express: Acquired by JD Logistics; timeliness synergizes with JD's air network; not independently ranked. 4. ZTO Express: 2023 volume 11.33 million tons (ranked 3rd); strong cash flow; rapid AI deployment; overall score ranked third. 5. Best Inc.: Volume ranked high but growth slowed; relatively落后 AI capability; ranking declined. 6. Deppon: Acquired by JD Logistics; large-item logistics capability complements JD; not independently ranked. 7. Cainiao**: Platform player with strong AI capability; ranks high (not included in comprehensive ranking).

Core Changes: 1. AI capability became a core competitive dimension, weighted at 25%, alongside volume, profitability, and service. 2. JD Logistics rose rapidly through acquisition integration, forming a full-scenario service capability, with LTL revenue comparable to S.F., ranking second overall. 3. S.F. maintained its lead in the LTL express field, ranking first in revenue and volume, with large model deployment, securing the top overall score. 4. ZTO Express ranked third leveraging its cash flow advantage, rapid AI layout, and volume. 5. Best faced challenges: its volume advantage was weakened by insufficient AI capability and JD's integrations; growth slowed, ranking declined. 6. Acquisition integration became a new competitive dimension: JD used capital to quickly fill gaps, forming full-scenario capabilities. Industry competition upgraded from "technology-driven" to "technology + capital dual-driven."

III. Evolution of Competitive Landscape: From Tripartite Balance to AI Decisiveness Core Trends: 1. Competition dimension shifted from "volume" to "quality": from volume and price to AI capability and service quality. 2. Competition mode shifted from "price war" to "value war": from price reduction to value creation. 3. Competition entities shifted from "single enterprises" to "ecosystem alliances": from solo efforts to ecosystem synergy. 4. Addition of capital drive: Acquisition integration became a new dimension for quickly filling gaps and forming full-scenario service capabilities.

06 Future Outlook: The Ultimate Form of the LTL Express Industry I. 2027-2030: From AI Empowerment to Ecosystem Synergy With deep AI application, the LTL express industry will enter an "ecosystem synergy" phase.

Characteristics of Ecosystem Synergy: 1. Data Integration: Real-time data sharing among shippers, carriers, warehouses, and last-mile delivery. 2. Resource Coordination: Unified scheduling for full truckload, LTL, express, and warehousing. 3. Intelligent Decision-Making: AI handles 80% of routine decisions; humans handle 20% of complex ones. 4. Value Co-creation: Upgrade from "logistics service provider" to "supply chain partner."

Effects of Ecosystem Synergy: 1. Overall supply chain efficiency increases by 30-50%. 2. Inventory costs decrease by 20-30%. 3. Transportation costs decrease by 15-25%. 4. Customer satisfaction rises to 95%+.

II. The Ultimate Form: An AI-Driven LTL Express Ecosystem

III. Who Will Be the Ultimate Winner? The ultimate winner in China's LTL express industry will need to possess: 1. Volume Scale: Sufficient volume to accumulate AI training data. 2. Technical Capability: Strong AI R&D and application abilities. 3. Capital Strength: Continuous financial support for AI investment. 4. Ecosystem Integration: Ability to integrate upstream and downstream resources. 5. Innovation Gene: Capacity for continuous innovation and rapid iteration.

Enterprise Evaluation: Core Trends: 1. JD Logistics caught up from behind: Through acquisitions, it quickly filled gaps in high-timeliness air freight (Kuayue), large-item logistics (Deppon), and instant delivery (Dada), forming a full-scenario service capability, ranking first in comprehensive strength. 2. S.F. maintained its independent advantages: Direct-operated model, Fengzhi/Fengyu large models, strong AI capability, forming a duopoly with JD. 3. Acquisition integration became a key competitive dimension: On the basis of AI empowerment, capital integration capability became a new watershed. 4. Industry concentration increased further: Leading enterprises accelerated concentration through acquisitions, increasing pressure on small and medium-sized enterprises.

07 Conclusion: From Price Wars to AI Empowerment, The Path to Breakthrough is Clear From price wars to AI empowerment, from breaking the cycle of inward competition to deepening value, the future has arrived. In 2021, the theme of competition in the LTL express industry was the "price war," where companies captured market share through price cuts, leading to a vicious cycle. By 2026, the theme has evolved into "AI empowerment," where companies achieve a virtuous cycle by enhancing efficiency, reducing costs, and creating value. The path to breakthrough is clear:

1. Abandon Price Wars: Prices have bottomed out; continuing price wars only leads to a vicious cycle. 2. Embrace AI Technology: AI can break efficiency bottlenecks, enabling cost reduction and quality improvement. 3. Plan for Ecosystem Synergy: Shift from single-entity competition to ecosystem collaboration to create greater value. 4. Capital Integration Capability: Quickly fill capability gaps through acquisitions to form full-scenario service capabilities (JD case: Kuayue + Deppon + Dada = Instant + Comprehensive + High-timeliness).

Conclusion: On the foundation of AI empowerment, capital integration capability has become the new watershed. Future competition will be driven by the dual engines of technology and capital.