September 8th - Following consecutive gains that pushed gold to fresh historical peaks, the precious metal faced temporary pressure from profit-taking activities. However, persistent expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts continue to attract dip-buying and safe-haven demand, providing underlying support for gold prices. Market participants were awaiting US non-farm payroll data, with poor figures expected to reinforce rate cut expectations and potentially drive gold higher. Key support levels were identified at 535 yuan, followed by 510 yuan, while resistance was noted at 558 yuan and 578 yuan, with further upside targeting the 600 yuan psychological level.
Subsequent price action showed gold stabilizing around 540 yuan during Asian and European trading sessions on Friday, before encountering resistance near 561 yuan and maintaining elevated consolidation. US market opening triggered a nearly 20 yuan surge, with continued upward momentum pushing prices to 600 yuan, marking another historical high. Monday's session saw gold finding support at 577 yuan, with multiple attempts to test the 600 yuan level facing resistance. After stabilizing again near 579 yuan, gold resumed its ascent, reaching a new peak at 622 yuan and currently trading around 616 yuan, demonstrating considerable strength. Overall, gold's rebound from the anticipated 535 yuan support zone to the 600 yuan target aligned with bullish expectations.
Market analysis indicates that gold's recent surge following August's bottom has been primarily driven by persistent Federal Reserve rate cut expectations. Earlier dovish comments from Fed Chairman Powell reinforced September rate cut bets, while expectations for multiple cuts throughout the year gained significant momentum. Subsequent political developments challenging Fed independence and calls for aggressive rate cuts further amplified these expectations. Friday's US non-farm payroll data, which fell well short of market forecasts, highlighted continued labor market softening (following similarly weak data in the previous month), prompting markets to strengthen their Fed rate cut bets and driving gold's continued rally to new highs. Looking ahead, rate cut expectations may continue supporting gold prices at elevated levels until the Fed's actual policy decision materializes.
Daily chart analysis reveals gold's persistent uptrend with repeated historical highs, displaying exceptional strength. Downside support can be monitored at the 600 yuan psychological level, representing Friday's rally peak, followed by Wednesday's high at 578 yuan, which also served as today's double-bottom support. Upside resistance focuses on the current historical high near 622 yuan for potential breakout scenarios. Further advances would warrant trend-following approaches without attempting to call tops, with upside space tentatively targeting the monthly Bollinger upper band around 700 yuan. The 5-day moving average and MACD indicators show golden cross divergence, while KDJ and RSI indicators maintain golden crosses in overbought territory with renewed upward momentum. Short-term technical indicators suggest overbought conditions with strong bullish sentiment, maintaining multi-sided advantage.
Intraday gold outlook: Poor US non-farm payroll performance, significantly missing expectations, has strengthened market expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, supporting gold's continued advance to new historical highs. Trading approach recommends range-bound strategies, monitoring downside support at 600 yuan, followed by 578 yuan, while watching upside resistance at the current historical high of 622 yuan for breakthrough developments. Further advances warrant trend-following without top-picking, with upside space tentatively targeting 700 yuan.