Spot gold prices surged last Friday as the U.S. dollar index retreated from a two-week high, resulting in a positive weekly close. This week's market focus will undoubtedly center on the delayed release of the U.S. January non-farm payrolls report and the CPI inflation data. These critical indicators will provide essential information for assessing the Federal Reserve's dual policy objectives of stabilizing inflation and maximizing employment, and the market is expected to recalibrate its expectations for the Fed's future policy path accordingly. Additionally, geopolitical developments, such as U.S.-Iran negotiations, the Russia-Ukraine situation, and trade policy directions, will continue to influence market sentiment.
On Monday, after a pullback from near its historical highs (around $5,595), the market structure for gold has shifted from a unilateral uptrend to wide-range fluctuations at elevated levels. Although gold prices showed a strong rebound in early trading today, the $5,100-$5,150 zone is widely viewed as a significant short-term resistance area. Under current conditions, without additional stimulus from major geopolitical events, the momentum for gold to reach new highs in the short term appears insufficient.
The recent sharp market volatility can be attributed more to a technical correction and profit-taking following a rapid previous rally, rather than signaling the end of the long-term bull market. This phase can be characterized as a "mid-term pause" to digest the substantial earlier gains, with the market likely entering a period of wide-range consolidation that could last for several weeks or even months.
This week's release of the non-farm payrolls and CPI data could trigger more intense volatility in financial markets if the data combination presents a contradictory scenario of "weak employment" alongside "stubborn inflation." Therefore, a prudent trading strategy would involve selling near resistance levels and buying near support levels, executing range-bound operations within key price zones.
From a technical perspective, resistance is observed at $5,100, which marks the upper boundary of the 4-hour chart's fluctuation range. A decisive break and consolidation above this level would be necessary to challenge higher prices. On the downside, support is seen near $4,925, the mid-axis support level on the 4-hour chart. A break below this level could test the $4,900 mark. The $4,750-$4,800 area represents the bottom of the recent trading range and is a critical defensive line for bullish positions; a breach here could lead to further declines for gold.
In summary, this week is a true "super data week," with market sentiment being highly sensitive and fragile. The bullish momentum in the gold market is no longer as strong as before, and complex博弈 will likely dominate short-term trading. For investors, it is advisable to reduce positions to lower levels or strictly set stop-loss and take-profit orders, adhering to a short-term trading discipline of quick entries and exits to minimize exposure to potential uncontrollable volatility risks ahead of the key data releases.
Trading recommendations for the day: Gold: Operate within the $5,050-$4,800 range. Set a stop-loss of $10 for any position, with take-profit levels depending on the specific situation.
Key financial data and events to watch today: Monday, February 9, 2026 00:00 the following day: U.S. New York Fed 1-Year Inflation Expectations 00:00 the following day: Speech by ECB President Lagarde 02:30 the following day: Speech by Fed Governor Waller 04:15 the following day: Speech by Fed President Bostic