The impact of Middle East geopolitics may reach a short-term extreme. However, the profound transformation unseen in a century and the restructuring of the international order are becoming more deeply ingrained. The revaluation of strategic resources such as gold, aerospace and defense, non-ferrous metals, and even crude oil will be an inevitable trend.

First, the current turmoil in the Persian Gulf region is merely a microcosm of the era of international order restructuring. It reflects the law of the jungle, where hegemonism and the strong prey on the weak. This is neither the beginning of the turmoil nor will it bring an end to the instability. The situation in the Persian Gulf is unlikely to easily transition from adversity to prosperity.

Second, market feedback shows that tanker shipping is stronger than oil prices. The market is initially trading on "transportation risks" rather than "supply disruptions." The probability of the United States successfully resolving the Iran issue in one decisive move is low.

If the US ultimately launches military strikes against Iran, we judge that its preferred approach would more likely be "sustained, deep aerial strikes combined with short-term decapitation operations," rather than deploying ground troops into Iran. The impact on global capital markets would be an intensified version of scenario two.

Conclusion: If the current US-Iran conflict does not evolve into a long-term disruption of the Strait of Hormuz or a large-scale ground war, then the rally in tanker shipping and crude oil prices, after benefiting from safe-haven demand and increased volatility and being fully priced in, will revert to fundamental logic. Among these, the risk premium for tanker shipping may persist longer than for oil prices. However, in the medium term, during this turbulent period of international order restructuring, the situation in the Persian Gulf may trend towards a stalemate characterized by "military high pressure and repeated probing." The valuation of crude oil as a strategic resource will be elevated.

In contrast, from a medium to long-term perspective, the momentum for revaluing strategic resources like gold and defense is stronger. The former benefits from the持续强化 of the international order restructuring process, while the latter gains from escalating geopolitical security concerns, rising expectations for military spending and equipment investment, and the market's repricing of "safe assets/secure industrial chains." Therefore, if the protracted conflict environment sees a temporary respite, gold and high-quality defense assets demonstrate more resilience to volatility and possess more sustainable allocation value compared to crude oil.