On Wednesday, September 10th, domestic lithium carbonate futures main contracts opened sharply lower with a significant gap down, touching an intraday low of 68,600 yuan per ton and approaching the daily limit down. Although the decline narrowed slightly afterward, prices still fell over 5%. Market analysis indicates that behind this dramatic volatility lies the direct catalyst of rapidly warming expectations for the imminent resumption of production at CATL's Ganxiawo lithium mine, fundamentally shifting the previous supply tightening narrative driven by mining permit issues.
**Breaking News Reignites Oversupply Concerns**
According to market sources, on the morning of September 9th, Yichun Times New Energy Mining Co., Ltd., a controlling subsidiary of CATL, convened a "Ganxiawo Lithium Mine Production Resumption Work Conference" to specifically advance the mine's restart operations. Informed sources revealed that the relevant mining rights certificates and permit approvals are "progressing smoothly," with production resumption potentially occurring "faster than the market's quickest expectations." This news rapidly fermented in the market and began reflecting in today's trading.
Xinhu Futures analysis pointed out that the market had previously expected the mine's shutdown to last at least three months. With resumption expectations now significantly advanced, the market quickly pivoted to trading the "mining permit disruption subsiding" narrative. From price action perspective, lithium carbonate has essentially given back all gains from the previous production halt news, returning to around 68,000 yuan per ton, reflecting the strong emotional impact on pricing.
**Fundamental Factors Mixed with Short-term Bias Toward Abundance**
From a supply-demand perspective, Zhengxin Futures noted that while current lithium carbonate social inventory has declined somewhat, it remains at a relatively high level of 140,100 tons. Last week, domestic lithium carbonate production increased by 389 tons week-over-week to 19,400 tons, with both spodumene and lepidolite extraction showing modest increases. On the demand side, September downstream production scheduling is expected to grow approximately 5% month-over-month, with energy storage particularly outstanding, though overall procurement remains primarily need-based without large-scale stockpiling behavior observed.
Cost-side support is also weakening. Last week, spodumene and lepidolite concentrate prices fell 5.0% and 5.6% respectively, with mineral prices expected to continue following lithium salt price movements. Additionally, July spodumene imports surged 30.35%, indicating relatively abundant overseas resource supply.
**Institutional Views: Event-Driven Trading Dominates, Cautious Operation Recommended**
Multiple futures companies believe that if Ganxiawo lithium mine resumes production quickly, it will significantly alter lithium carbonate market expectation structures, with prices potentially returning to a weaker operational pattern in the short term.
Southwest Futures stated that resumption news exceeded market expectations, reversing the previous bullish sentiment driven by mining-side scarcity. Despite currently being in the traditional "Golden September, Silver October" peak season with downstream production scheduling recovering, prices remain under pressure from the dual pressures of high inventory and supply restoration.
Guotai Junan Futures further indicated that mining permit change issues were among the core factors previously driving lithium carbonate price rebounds from the bottom. With Jiangxi large-scale lithium mine restart expectations now rising again, prices face significant correction risks. Overnight, Liyang Zhonglian Jin lithium carbonate spot prices have already fallen to the 68,900-69,200 yuan per ton range, with futures markets expected to follow suit.
Yide Futures and Everbright Futures hold similar views, believing news-side pressure on prices is significant, with prices potentially breaking below the key 70,000 yuan per ton support level again. Everbright Futures additionally noted the need to monitor actual resumption progress and its spillover effects on other mining permit approval issues.
**What Events Should Be Watched Going Forward?**
Overall, this round of lithium carbonate price declines is primarily event-driven, reflecting the market's rapid adjustment of supply expectations. Xinhu Futures indicated that short-term demand-side factors still provide bottom support for lithium prices, with potential long entry opportunities emerging after sentiment release. Future attention should focus on Ganxiawo lithium mine's actual resumption progress, downstream peak season demand quality, and global lithium resource import conditions - these factors will determine lithium prices' true direction in the fourth quarter.
The content is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice. Investors operate at their own risk.