According to data from Sigmaintell, the total global shipment of smartphone panels in 2025 is projected to be approximately 2.31 billion units (Open Cell caliber), representing a year-on-year increase of about 3.4%. While the growth rate has moderated, the total shipment volume has reached a new record high. The primary drivers of this growth are the continued large-scale expansion of a-Si LCD production capacity and the ongoing penetration and shipment growth of flexible OLED models.
In terms of product structure, flexible OLED and a-Si LCD are experiencing dual-track growth, whereas LTPS LCD and rigid OLED are both on a downward trajectory.
For a-Si LCD, against the backdrop of global economic uncertainty, these lowest-cost panels have demonstrated strong risk resilience. Manufacturers such as CSOT and Tianma have achieved rapid market share growth through capacity expansion. Total a-Si LCD shipments in 2025 are estimated at around 1.33 billion units, a stable increase of 10.2% year-on-year.
In the LTPS LCD segment, global shipments for smartphone panels are expected to be about 87 million units in 2025, a sharp decline of 51.4% year-on-year, falling below the 100 million unit mark for the first time in recent years. In response to market shifts, panel makers are accelerating production capacity transformation, redirecting production lines to medium-sized products like automotive displays, tablets, and laptops. Consequently, the market share of LTPS LCD in smartphone panels has decreased to 3.8% in 2025.
Regarding rigid OLED, the rapid cost reduction of flexible OLED in recent years has further narrowed the price gap with rigid OLED. Mobile phone brands are increasingly favoring flexible OLED for their mid-range products to enhance product premiumization, leading to a continued contraction in rigid OLED's market share. Shipments of rigid OLED smartphone panels in 2025 are forecast to be approximately 200 million units, down 7.7% year-on-year, accounting for 22.4% of total AMOLED shipments.
For flexible OLED, global shipments are anticipated to reach about 690 million units in 2025, a robust increase of 9.6% year-on-year, making it the category with the steadiest growth among the technologies. The core driver is the ongoing penetration into mid-range models from phone brands. Future market adoption and development of innovative form factors like foldable screens, along with the deployment of higher-generation production lines, are expected to further support shipment growth in this category.
In terms of the competitive landscape, the market is polarizing, with the concentration of leading panel manufacturers increasing further. Data from Sigmaintell shows that the combined market share of the top five global smartphone panel manufacturers reached 72.7% in 2025, an increase of 3.5 percentage points year-on-year, indicating heightened market concentration at the top.
BOE maintained its position as the global leader with a 23.8% market share, shipping approximately 550 million units for the year. a-Si LCD shipments of 370 million units served as the core engine, constituting 67.9% of its total shipments. BOE's flexible OLED shipments reached about 150 million units in 2025, showing continued growth. The company's G8.6 OLED production line commenced operation in 2025 and is poised to become a key growth driver and strategic foothold in the medium-to-large size OLED segment.
Samsung Display (SDC) secured the second position globally with a 16.4% market share, shipping around 380 million units, a slight increase of 1.5% year-on-year. Its core strength remains in high-end flexible OLED, with shipments of 220 million units in 2025, capturing a 31.6% global market share in that category.
CSOT ranked third globally with a 12.3% share, shipping approximately 280 million units, a rapid year-on-year increase of 33.5%. Its global shipment market share rose by 2.8 percentage points. This growth was primarily driven by the cost advantages and capacity ramp-up of its a-Si LCD panels. CSOT's a-Si LCD shipments reached about 180 million units in 2025, surging 91.2% year-on-year. Its flexible OLED shipments were around 81 million units, with production utilization rates remaining stably high throughout the year.
Looking ahead to 2026, the industry faces pressure from global economic uncertainty combined with rising memory chip prices. Cost pressures on terminal brands and downward revisions to procurement plans are expected to transmit to panel makers, potentially leading to weaker and more uncertain overall demand for smartphone panels, alongside intensified price decline pressures. Utilization rates for mainstream panel manufacturers are generally expected to decline. The market landscape is likely to further consolidate around leading manufacturers possessing strong cost control capabilities and advanced technology portfolios. Competition and cooperation between Chinese and Korean manufacturers in the OLED sector may intensify.
In this context, Sigmaintell suggests that panel manufacturers need to accelerate the optimization of their production capacity structure. This involves focusing on core strategic clients and high-margin, high-end model orders while scaling back low value-added mid-to-low-end capacity, and promoting the transition of mature technology categories to emerging fields such as medical and industrial control applications. Simultaneously, manufacturers should seize the opportunities presented by the mass production of higher-generation lines, strengthen R&D and industrial investment in new technologies, and enhance the industrial chain layout for medium-to-large size OLEDs. Optimizing supply chain management, improving cost control capabilities, mitigating risks associated with reliance on single markets, and adopting differentiated competitive strategies will be crucial for navigating the industry's structural adjustments and further solidifying market competitiveness.